tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3655683135628692725.post6918404839389094507..comments2024-03-15T02:07:16.407-07:00Comments on Mike's Bogota Blog: Colombia, Caracas and UkraineMiguelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15388030533444193686noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3655683135628692725.post-25656842999424883782014-03-09T14:48:32.842-07:002014-03-09T14:48:32.842-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.Stuart Oswaldhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08935995451698556144noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3655683135628692725.post-40115148185327721252014-03-07T18:41:11.705-08:002014-03-07T18:41:11.705-08:00Hi Fairfax,
I recall that most analysts believed ...Hi Fairfax,<br /><br />I recall that most analysts believed that Venezuela might have initial successes in a conflict, but that Colombia would win in the long run. <br /><br />Chavez might have been bluffing all along. Or, he might have changed his mind when some of his tanks broke down on the way to the border. <br /><br />As for Palin. I don't know what she said, but the trouble is that she says so many things that there's no way to know what to take seriously.<br /><br />Best, <br /><br />MikeMiguelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15388030533444193686noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3655683135628692725.post-67974727580901366732014-03-07T01:49:06.983-08:002014-03-07T01:49:06.983-08:00I thought that the consensus was that Chavez knew ...I thought that the consensus was that Chavez knew that Venezuela would lose a war against Colombia - assuming that the Venezuelan military obeyed orders and invaded Colombia which was never 100% certain.<br /><br />BTW Sarah Palin did predict the invasion of Ukraine so it was not entirely unpredicted.L fairfaxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12274756119129254373noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3655683135628692725.post-32641809543620097142014-03-05T19:15:49.244-08:002014-03-05T19:15:49.244-08:00Thanks Daniel. A 'hot' war also seems a lo...Thanks Daniel. A 'hot' war also seems a long way away to me. However, I don't think anybody expect Russia to invade the Ukraine. Don't forget that just a few years ago Chavez ordered his troops to the Colombian border. A desperate government may do desperate things to rally its own population. And a belief that the Russians were backing them could make the Venezuelans more reckless. <br /><br />I'm not predicting this, and let's all hope it doesn't come to pass. But lots of things are possible. <br /><br />MikeMiguelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15388030533444193686noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3655683135628692725.post-31198831933863946312014-03-04T18:59:48.264-08:002014-03-04T18:59:48.264-08:00Hello.
I have been giving some thought to this su...Hello.<br /><br />I have been giving some thought to this subject as well, though not from the sovereignty standpoint. However, I believe that the most danger Colombia can expect from what you describe here is additional Chinese and Russian financial support to Nicaragua's new canal. As far as military issues go, I would not worry so much, as an invasion of sorts is a much too difficult task nowadays. <br />Venezuela has its own problems to solve, and even if they allow the Russian military in (which by the way I believe very unlikely) it would not be done in support of a turf war with Colombia for the Guajira. Rather, it would be done to bolster Venezuela's anti USA claims.<br />I do worry about the social consequences of the riots and the protests, but that will, unfortunately, have to unfold in its own time.<br /><br />Thanks.Daniel Trujillohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03513555155015437193noreply@blogger.com