Mike's Bogota Blog: Breaking Point for Peace?

Semana magazine reports a plummeting support for the peace process.

Suddenly, the peace process doesn't look so strong.

For the past year, the government-FARC negotiations in Havana have barely advanced - and then came the FARC's massacre of 10 soldiers in El Cauca.

Pessimism surges.

Now, public support for the talks, as well as Santos' presidency, has tumbled. From about 70% public support in March, today only 55% of Colombians support the talks, while opposition has surged from 31% to 44%. Perhaps even more worrying for the talks, almost 90% of Colombians believe that the guerrillas should go to prison for their crimes, something which the FARC leaders oppose. Nearly two-thirds of people want deadlines, something which appears untenable for the drawn-out talks.

Altogether 69% of Colombians now feel pessimistic about the negotiations, while only 29% express optimism.

Undoubtedly, Santos will persevere with the negotiations. After all, they got him reelected and will define his legacy (and even his family's).

While Santos' support falls, that of ex-Pres. Alvaro Uribe, leader of the opposition in Congress and fervent critic of the negotiations, has surged to 57%.

However, if opposition keeps rising, will the results have any legitimacy? Can the resulting agreement be ratified by Congress, a referendum or even a Constitutional Convention?