Montesinos' Web is Back in Court

In what seems like a blast from the past, one-time Peruvian svengali Vladimiro Montesinos and 57 others are on trial in Colombia for smuggling arms from Jordan to the FARC guerrillas in 1999.

The 57-year-old Montesinos is not likely to make an appearance at the trial, since he's already serving a 20-year sentence in Peru for the same scheme, which involved a sale of 10,000 assault rifles to the FARC guerrillas. Montesinos, also faces dozens of other charges in Peru, including for drug running and murder.

But the really extraordinary thing about this arms trafficking scheme was its complexity. On trial in -- besides Montesinos are a Spaniard, a Frenchman, a Lebanese, 14 Peruvians and 15 Russians, as well as 24 FARC leaders - some of whom are involved in the peace negotiations with the government, according to media reports. Montesinos, who was Peruvian strongman Alberto Fujimori's right-hand man, denies that he can be tried in Colombia because he's already been convicted in Peru for the same crimes.

Montesinos, incidentally, was for many years on the CIA's payroll.


By Mike Ceaser, of Bogotá Bike Tours

Colombia Pushes Coca Over the Border

El Tiempo reports on the latest coca bush acreage (hectareage?) statistics from the U.S. government, which show a continued drop in Colombia's crop, to a 15-year low.

That would be excellent news - if it meant advances in the drug war's REAL goals: fewer addicts and less money going to violent, illegal groups. Unfortunately, there are lots of reasons to question whether that's happening.

In the first place, the United Nation's latest coca survey found that Colombia's acreage had actually increased, albeit only by 2%. More significantly, coca acreage has clearly expanded in the world's two other producers: Peru and Bolivia.

"Each decrease in Colombia has shifted to Peru and Bolivia; the laboratories have moved to Ecuador and Venezuela and the trafficking to Central America and Mexico," University of the Andes Professor Daniel mejía told AFP.

In today's paper, El Tiempo asks U.S. Ambassador Michael McKinley about this 'balloon effect.' However, he prefers not to talk about it, concentrating instead on Colombia's accomplishments.

The ambassador seems to be suggesting that Peru and Bolivia could accomplish as much if they only applied Colombia's aggressive erraddication strategies. That a poor, highly corrupt and underdeveloped nation like Bolivia could carry out such an effort seems unlikely, but the fact is that it won't even try: Bolivia's anti-Washington government - whose Pres. Evo Morales also heads the national coca leaf growers federation - has been scaling back cooperation with U.S. anti-drug efforts and lobbied for the U.N. to legalize coca leaf  chewing. In Venezuela, Pres. Chavez has completely cut anti-drug cooperation with Washington, while allegedly opening the borders wide to drug traffickers. The only reason I can think of why cocaleros haven't yet started planting in Venezuela and Ecuador is because they haven't needed to. And little Uruguay's plan to legalize and produce marijuana can't be encouraging for prohibitionists, either.

Meanwhile, use of synthetic drugs, especially methamphetamines, appears to be booming.

Colombia's reported drop in coca area is positive, but isolated, and perhaps pointless in the context of wider trends.

By Mike Ceaser, of Bogotá Bike Tours

Cocaine Production's Comeback

Erradicating coca leaf bushes. But they don't stay gone. 

The numbers are in, and once again it looks like the billions of dollars the world pours annually into the War on Drugs have accomplished little. 

Global cocaine prices haven shifted little in recent years.
(United Nations graph)   

Yesterday's El Tiempo reported that Colombia's coca leaf acreage increased by 3% last year. While that's not much, and the defense ministry called the numbers "stable," it does mean that cultivation has ceased declining, despite erradication efforts. 


The defense ministry explained that cultivation has increased in certain areas because they are near borders and have indigenous territories, where erradication efforts are restricted. But the defense ministry did not observe that Colombia will always have border regions and indigenous territories, meaning that this upward trend may very well continue.

Legal and illegal drugs have followed similar consumption
patterns. (United Nations graph)

Beyond Colombia's borders, the trend is also negative. Coca leaf cultivation has increased in both Bolivia and Peru, which has surpassed Colombia to become the world's biggest cocaine producer, according to the United Nations. The Wall Street Journal reports that Peruvian coca leaf growers have managed to cultivate the crop in wetlands, something once thot impossible. That means both more production and environmental impacts. The Journal points out that growers could easily cross the border and plant coca in Brazil - and why not Africa and Asia? (In the early 20th century coca leaf was grown industrially in Java and Taiwan.) Today, much of South America's cocaine is shipped to Europe via Africa. Wouldn't planting the stuff in Africa be much cheaper and easier for the traffickers?

The United Nations annual world drug report offers a mixed review of the main plant-based drugs: cocaine, heroin and marijuana. Global coca bush cultivation has dropped by a third since the year 2000, according to the U.N. (altho productivity per acre has apparently risen). But those gains have been counterbalanced "by rising levels of synthetic drug production." And some of those drugs, such as amphithetamines, may be much more harmful than heroin and cocaine.

Thru 2010, coca leaf cultivation inched upwards in Peru and
Bolivia, but dropped in Colombia. That's since changed. 

The reports, once again, constitute a powerful case for legalizing and regulating these now-illegal substances. Such a policy change, which is happening slowly and contradictorily for marijuana - would enable states to tax and regulate these substances, require quality standards and enforce environmental protections.

And, the world would save a whole lot of money it now spends on drug law enforcement and encarceration.

By Mike Ceaser, of Bogotá Bike Tours

Colombia Surrounded?

Colombia and Chile, the only nations  on the continent with conservative governments. 

Humala: Which version of him will rule?

The victory of Ollanta Humala in Peru's presidential election leaves Colombia almost surrounded by leftist governments, several of them with populist, nationalist pedigrees sometimes hostile to Colombia.

Humala beat out right-wing candidate Keiko Fujimori in a runoff after several candidates split the centrist vote, leaving a leftist populist to face off against the daughter of an ex-president-turned-dictator now in a Peruvian prison. Peruvian novelist and Nobel Prize winner Mario Vargas Llosa called it 'a choice between AIDS and terminal cancer.'

Colombia already has on its eastern border the Venezuela of Hugo Chavez, who appears to have funded and supported Colombia's leftist guerrillas and has periodically talked of war with Colombia. On Colombia's west is Ecuador, whose Pres. Rafael Correa also apparently provided refuge to Colombia's FARC guerrillas. To the south is Brazil, whose leaders have carried out a more mature style of leftism, improving the lives of the poor without embracing obsolete ideas about revolution, guerrilla war and anti-imperialism.

Alan Garcia

For the past four years, Peru has been governed by Alan Garcia, himself a bizarre political character. During his four years in power, the Peruvian economy has grown by 9% annually - the fastest in South America. But during Garcia's previous presidential term 25 years ago, when he was a leftist, he led his country to disaster. Then, Garcia drove his country into economic ruin, while the Shining Path guerrillas unleashed a reign of terror.

Perhaps Humala will find a lesson in that. But his background gives reason to worry. During his unsuccesful campaign against Garcia four years ago, Humala promised to remake Peru and displayed admiration for Venezuelan Pres. Hugo Chavez, who probably helped finance Humala's first campaign. Like Chavez, Humala is an ex-military man who headed an unsuccesful coup attempt against his government. This time around, Humala has promised to maintain Peru's successful economic model, but with more assistance for the poor. Let's hope he sticks to that.

Pointless effort? Spraying
coca plants in Colombia. 

One almost-certain casualty of Humala's victory is Washington's campaign against cocaine production. Peru's crop of coca leaf, the base ingredient of cocaine, has increased in recent years, even as the U.S. has spent billions of dollars erradicating Colombia's own crop. Peru was historically the world's biggest cocaine producer, and if Humala follows the lead of leftist leaders of Bolivia and Venezuela and ends anti-drug cooperation with Washington, it will regain that status and Colombia's efforts will become futile. Of course, this only underlines the fact that the War On Drugs is probably all futile, anyway.

Humala's victory is most dangerous because of the way he could threaten Peru's fragile democracy. The leftist leaders in Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador and Nicaragua have variously tried to extend their presidencies beyond constitutional limits and expand presidential powers.

Humala's success was born from Latin America's presistent poverty. Despite vigorous economic growth, it is the region of the world suffering the greatest amount of economic inequality. Until the region's leaders resolve this problem, all kinds of radicalism will continue sprouting and flourishing.

Whether or not Humala helps his country will depend on which Humala rules Peru: a moderate focused on helping his people or a nationalist ideologue bent on proving that Marxism lives on. I hope he doesn't follow the cheap populism I saw in Venezuela, where Chavez uses his country's great wealth to buy political support. For example, Venezuela subsidizes gasoline to just a few cents a gallon - undermining the country's economy, environment and quality of life, but buying votes for Chavez. Besieged by his nation's troubles, Chavez has often looked for enemies to rail against in Colombia and the United States. If Peru's economy weakens, we could see a repeat from the west.

It may be fortunate for Colombia that this is happening during the government of Pres. Juan Manuel Santos, who has tried hard to get along with Colombia's leftist neighbors. His predecessor Alvaro Uribe, in contrast, seemed paranoid about Venezuela's Chavez, which only made things worse.

As for Humala's defeated rival Keiko Fujimori, she may still have a promising political future. Peru's last two presidents had both finished second in the preceding election.

By Mike Ceaser, of Bogotá Bike Tours

Peru's Election: AIDS or Cancer for Colombia?

Ollanta Humala

A choice between AIDS and cancer is how Peruvian author Mario Vargas Llosa described the choice Peruvian voters face in the run-off presidential election June 5.

In the first round of voting in April, several centrist candidates divided their support, leaving two extremists carrying worrisome relationships: Ollanta Humala, a populist, nationalist who sometimes sounds like a more extreme version of Venezuela's Hugo Chavéz, and Keiko Fujimori, daughter of Peruvian ex-President Alberto Fujimori, who turned himself into a dictator and made corruption and human rights violations state policy and is now in a Peruvian prison.

Keiko Fujimori

Neither bodes well for Colombia: Humala is a leftist with a discourse resembling that of Venezuela's Hugo Chavez, who has apparently financed both Humala and Colombia's FARC guerrillas. With leftist governments on two of its borders, Colombia doesn't need a third such neighbor to sympathize and support Colombia's insurgents. On the other hand, Alberto Fujimori's right-hand man Vladimiro Montesinos, who headed Peru's intelligence service, received protection money from cocaine cartels and trafficked assault rifles to the FARC guerrillas. Some Peruvians suspect that if Keiko wins her father will be the real ruler.

This is a surprising situation for Peru. The country's economy has grown at 9 percent annualy - the fastest rate in South America - so you'd expect voters to choose another centrist who'll continue the existing economic and political policies. But too many centrist candidates divided that vote between them. The situation is also a testament to the fact that despite Peru's economic boom, many Peruvians live in poverty.

Perhaps the election winner will learn from others' mistakes. Recently, Humala has tried to distance himself from Hugo Chavez and Keiko Fujimori, who is leading in the polls, has tried to the same from her father's administration.

By Mike Ceaser, of Bogotá Bike Tours

Still Coca Country?

Have you ever pushed in the side of a balloon?

What happens? It bulges out someplace else.

Many observers, including The Economist magazine, say that South America's coca leaf crop is like a balloon. When erradication pressure reduces acreage in one area, more gets planted in another.

Years ago, coca was grown only in Bolivia and Peru. Governments chopped down and pulled out

the crop in those countries - and what happened? Colombia became the biggest coca leaf grower, as it has been at least until recently.

A just-released survey of coca leaf plantings by the United Nations Office on Drugs reports that Colombian acreage declined 16% between 2007 and 2008, and 60% over the past decade. But production in Peru rose 55% over the past decade. Production in Bolivia has also risen slightly. So, Colombia may have lost its first-place position among coca leaf producers. Here's a NY Times video on coca erradication in Peru.

Regional production has declined by about 5%, but that's not much to crow about, especially considering the billions of dollars spent on the drug war, and the countless lives ended and ruined.

Some people call it all futile.

On the other hand, the War on Drugs has accomplished one thing: it's raised the price of drugs on the street, and therefore undoubtedly discouraged some people from becoming drug

consumers. That is a good thing.

However, by squeezing the supply of drugs, the war pumps up prices on the supply end, enriching drug traffickers and increasing their incentive to supply more chemicals and invent new ways to smuggle them. Should drug control efforts be focused on the supply or the demand end?

In Colombia, the drug trade has long enriched vicious guerrilla, paramilitary and plain old narcotraffickers. In Peru today the drug trade is giving new life to their own vicious rebels, the Shining Path Maoists.

The drug war also means millions of people imprisoned, most of them impoverished drug 'mules,' while the kingpins

generally stay rich and comfortable. Many other people are caught in the crossfire between the outlaw groups which traffic drugs, because as long as drugs are outlawed, outlaw groups will be the ones getting rich off of them.

The drug war's ultimate goal must not be to erradicate crops in South America or fill prisons worldwide with people engaged in the consensual conduct of selling substances to people who want to buy them. The war's goal is to protect the well-being of people who might otherwise become users or addicts.

Unfortunately, that might not be happening. While coca leaf erradication in South America may limit the amount of cocaine reaching the strees of the U.S. and Europe, those same potential drug consumers have access to lots of other chemicals, including vicious synthetic ones like methamphetamines. If the erradication were squeezing the supply, street prices would rise,

but that is evidently not happening.

If the U.S. and Latin American nations are spending untold riches to ruin the lives of innumerable people in Latin America and enriching outlaw organizations in order to keep cocaine products off of the street, only to push them into methamphetamine addiction - then we're accomplishing nothing.

Finally, if this drug erradication campaign is really pressuring the supply, then I wish someone would explain to me why they haven't started planting coca leaf in Brazil, Ecuador, Venezuela, or even Africa or Asia. Are the narcos practicing self-restraint? Do the appropriate soil and climate conditions stop at the borders?

Throw in the towel? Decriminalize drugs? It's worth serious consideration.

Mike Ceaser runs Bogota Bike Tours and Rentals