Uribe, Perpetual Kingmaker

Ivan Duque, president elect
and Uribe creation.

If last Sunday's presidential vote proved one thing, it's that Alvaro Uribe continues ruling Colombian politics. No matter that his own presidency was marred by severe human rights violations including paramilitary massacres with evident government collusion and the horrific False Positives murders, or that his brother is in prison and Uribe himself is the object of multiple investigations for paramilitary links.

No, none of that seems to matter in Colombian politics. Eight years ago, Uribe selected his minister of defense, Juan Manuel Santos, to succeed him. Santos won the presidency, altho he proceeded to defy Uribe by negotiating peace with the FARC guerrillas. Uribe was the leading opponent of the peace talks.

Four years ago, Uribe chose Oscar Ivan Zuliaga, who came close but failed in his attempt to unseat Santos.

But now, with Ivan Duque, a fresh face in Colombian politics, Uribe has shown again his ability to be

Uribe, right, and Zuluaga, his previous political product.

kingmaker. Duque, a senator who is only 41 years old and has been just a few years in politics, was little known until Uribe annoited him as his succesor. On Sunday, he handily defeated Bogotá's leftist ex-mayor Gustavo Petro for the presidency.

While Pres. Santos surprised many by breaking with Uribe, it looks much less likely that Duque will do so. Duque is young and has little political experience. He lacks Santos' long family political heritage. And Uribe will be the most powerful man in Congress, making his collaboration fundamental to the president.

Another winner Sunday were the evangelical churches, most of which threw their support behind Duque. Colombia historically was a strongly Catholic nation. The 1991 Constitution converted it into a secular nation, but Catholicism continued holding great cultural and political influence. In recent decades, however, evangelicals have made great inroads among poor people, while the Catholic Church lost battles on issues including abortion and gay rights and euthenasia. The Conservative Party, which often represented the Catholic church and was one of only two parties which mattered, has lost relevance, while MIRA and other purely evangelical political parties have surged.

The MIRA evangelical party endorsed Duque.

Duque will be indebted to the evangelicals. And, while he has said that he will respect LGBT rights, and "not rip apart" the FARC peace accord, which the evangelicals also opposed, political reality may dictate other plans.

Colombia's environment will be another great loser from this election, although it was already in full retreat. Deforestation has accelerated at a terrifying pace in recent years, and Duque's plans to pursue an economy based on resource extraction will only worsen that trend.

Many suspect that Duque, an academic and diplomat, who is only 41 and has only a few years of political experience, will be controlled by Uribe. Uribe, after all, put Duque where he is and also heads the largest power bloc in Congress.

Duque, however, will have trouble sabotaging the peace deal, which both he and Uribe opposed, because it is a ... law and because many of his likely political coalition partners supported it.

But Duque will pursue prohibitionist drug policies and an aggressive coca leaf erradication effort, even tho both have been shown to be failures. Duque will also deepen Colombia's fossil fuel-dependent economy.


By Mike Ceaser, of Bogotá Bike Tours

With Supporters Like This Guy...

Jhon Jairo Velasquez, one-time cartel assassin
turned right-wing political campaigner.

Jhon Jairo Velásquez, known as Popeye, was probably Pablo Escobar's top assassin, who confessed to personally murdering some 250 people - so he's not the sort of guy whose endorsement most political candidates want.

But Popeye, who was released in August 2014 after 23 years in prison, has gone full throttle in favor of right-wing presidential candidate Iván Duque in the voting to be held on Sunday.

Or, rather than supporting Duque, Popeye has been lashing out against Gustavo Petro, the leftist candidate, ex-Bogotá mayor and ex-M19 guerrilla leader, who has the second largest support in most polls.

'We will combat the Petro collectives with everything,' Popeye tweeted last week. 'Evil rats, Petristas communist ones; Associates of the FARC (guerrillas), Nicolas Maduro and (Colombian president) Juan Manuel Santos.

'I can be killed by a bullet,but not by fear,' Popeye added.

Why a one-time assassin for a narcotics kingpin, who still hangs out with narcos, would campaign for a law-and-order candidate is a mystery. After all, Escobar's Medellin cartel fought bloody battles against the police and military.

Or, for those who believe in conspiracies, perhaps there's more here than meets the eyes. Is Popeye actually in the pay of another candidate, such as Petro himself, who wants Popeye to sully Duque's name by associating with him?

The Medellin Cartel did sometimes ally itself with right-wing paramilitaries, so perhaps popeye has some lingering loyalties. Or perhaps Popeye, who reportedly now leads tours in Medellin, genuinely hates left-wing politicians such as Gustavo Petro, the ex-mayor of Bogotá and leader of the M-19 guerrillas who is one of the leading candidates for president. Popeye certainly spends lots of ink denouncing communism.

In recent tweets, Popeye sounded like he was preparing a civil war, discussing storing arms and weapons in people's houses. But Popeye's tweets really triggered alarms when he promised that 'My rifle will do the talking'. His critics have asked prosecutors to investigate whether that constitutes an illegal threat.

Like Escobar's son Juan Pablo, who allegedly has continued making drug money deals from his home in Argentina, Popeye can't seem to leave his vicious Medellin Cartel habits behind.

By Mike Ceaser, of Bogotá Bike Tours

A Vote for Petro is a Vote for...Duque?

That's the thesis of Daniel Coronell, veteran columnist of Semana magazine, executive of Univision and perpetual critic of ex-Pres. Alvaro Uribe, who happens to be the political patron of right-wing presidential candidate Ivan Duque.

Daniel Coronell and Gustavo Petro (inset).

As Coronell sees things, many politically moderate and conservative Colombians are terrified that if leftist Gustavo Petro is elected president he'll turn Colombia into another Venezuela. Their fears might not be completely unfounded. Altho Petro was a respected congressman and as Bogotá mayor he did nothing more radical than causing a crisis by foolishly handing over the city's garbage service to the water company, during the 1980s he was a leader of the M-19 guerrilla group. His guerrilla past might be excused as youthful idealism if not for the fact that Petro has repeatedly refused to criticize the government of Venezuela, which has run that nation's economy into the ground, trampled civil liberties, become increasingly authoritarian and generally transformed what should be the region's wealthiest nation into a disaster area.

More than a million Venezuelan refugees have fled into Colombia, so Petro can hardly plead ignorance about the scale of the humanitarian disaster there. Petro's silence about Venezuela probably isn't due to political interests, since Colombians' rejection of the Venezuelan government seems to be overwhelming. So that makes one wonder whether Petro, if he's elected, hopes to make deals with the Venezuelan regime - and that is a scary thought.

All of which might make more and more centrist Colombians support Duque just to stop Petro. (On the other hand, of course, a vote for Duque could also be called a vote for Petro.)

Coronell's comments didn't sit well with either the left or the right. Uribe warned him to watch out, as president Duque would review media licenses. Uribe's comments were immediately condemned as a threat to freedom of the media, which Uribe denied.

Duque also scares many people, who see him as the political puppet of Uribe, who selected him to be the Centro Democratico party's standard bearer. As president from 2002 to 2010, Uribe beat back the FARC guerrillas, but at a tremendous cost in human rights. And Uribe displayed a paranoia about the media, human rights defenders and his political opponents, whom he often saw as guerrilla sympathizers.

If recent polls are any guide, Duque has a lock on making into the second round of presidential

Ivan Duque, Colombia's next president?

voting, where he'll be the overwhelming favorite to defeat petro or any other candidate who runs against him. The best prospect to stop Duque might be for the centrist presidential candidates to ally themselves and attract some voters from both extremes - but that looks like a longshot.

But, even in the case of a Duque victory, Colombia's many Uribe haters can hold on to hope. After all, years before Uribe selected Duque to carry on his policies, he selected his defense minister Juan Manuel Santos to do the same thing. Santos was elected president, and still holds the office. But in addition to fighting the FARC guerrillas, Santos entered into peace negotiations with them, infuriating Uribe, who became Santos' political enemy. A similar things happened in Ecuador.

The same might yet happen with Duque. God bless term limits!

By Mike Ceaser, of Bogotá Bike Tours