Just Explain The Money, Mr. Petro

Petro and wads of cash, in the leaked video.

Gustavo Petro is generally remembered as a poor administrator as mayor of Bogotá, and he lost badly when he ran for president. But he has at least been generally known for his probity and for having ideals, whether you agree with them or not.

However, those positive qualities are now under siege these days due to a decade-old video released by his political enemies in which Petro is seen receiving wads of cash of uncertain origin.

As Petro has repeatedly pointed out, receiving wads of cash isn't illegal. But it does looks bad, because it's how people like Pablo Escobar and innumerable corrupt politicians handle their finances, and so requires an explanatio: 'The money came from my mother'. 'I had dug the money up on my ranch.' 'A supporter gave it to me.'

In fact, Petro did offer a simple explanation: He claimed that the cash was a donation from prominent arquitect Simon Velez, who reportedly does not like using banks. But Velez quickly issued a statement flatly denying having given or loaned Petro money. El Tiempo also reported that the other two people who appear in the video along with Petro received city contracts. That's not necessarily illegal, either, but it does look very bad.

Unused bike racks installed during Petro's
mayoralty serve as seats for street vendors.

Petro counterattacked by charging that the video was illegaly leaked by his enemies to distract attention from their own corruption scandals. That's probably true. But whatever the video's origin, that doesn't change its substance.

A lot of people, including me, who thot Petro was a disappointing mayor, had held on to faith that he was at least personally not corrupt.This was despite indications to the contrary, such as the multiple, huge bike parking racks installed on Plaza San Victorino during the last months of his mayoralty - even tho few people ever park bikes on the plaza. Those huge new racks, which quickly turned into seats for street vendors, were very likely the result of a sweetheart contract given to someone with city hall connections, who handed over wads of cash to pay for the privilege of getting a contract to install useless bike racks.

In the same way, bribery can waste public funds, cause governments to build unnecessary, disfunctional roads, purchase overpriced, useless medical equipment and even kill people. And, by undermining faith in the mainstream parties, corruption makes extremists such as Venezuela's Chavez and Brasil's Bolsonaro look more attractive - potentially leading their nations toward disaster.

And corruption has a poisonous effect on democracies. A recent poll found that Latin American support for democratic systems is at a low point, with fewer than half of the public giving democracy their full faith. A big part of the reason for that is the pervasive corruption, and Petro's unexplained cash only deepens that perception.

That's all we need, Mr. Petro, is a clear, verifiable explanation of those bills' origin. But every day that we wait for that explanation in vain adds to the perception that that was dirty money.

By Mike Ceaser, of Bogotá Bike Tours

The Decadence of the Liberal Party

Liberal candidate Humberto
de la Calle: A good man,
but a bad campaigner.

During much of Colombia's history, the Partido Liberal was one of two dominant forces - along with the Partido Conservador - in Colombian politics. The Liberals produced some 30 presidents and helped introduce peace treaties with guerrilla groups, the secularization of the country and expanded rights for women and minorities.

The Liberals dominated the presidency after the end of Frente Nacional in 1974, electing 5 of the country's 7 presidents.

However, the presidency of Ernesto Samper (1994-8), whose campaign was financed by drug cartels, tainted the party (and by the same token, his succesor Conservative Andrés Pastrana's failed peace talks with the FARC guerrillas threw the Conservatives into disrepute). The 2002 election of Pres. Alvaro Uribe, who started his political career as a Liberal, moved far to the right, and won the presidency as an independent, drained both major traditional parties of relevance.

The Liberals' lack of ideological consistency may also weaken it. The party houses both far-leftists
such as e-senator Piedad Cordoba, who evidently sympathizes with both the FARC guerrillas and the government of Venezuela, and conservative evangelicals.

In this latest presidential campaign the Liberals made the mistake of choosing as their standard bearer Humberto De La Calle, who led the government negotiating team in peace talks with the FARC guerrillas. But De La Calle's candidacy never took off, receiving only 2% of the vote. And neither did the Liberals enter into a coalition with the only viable centrist candidate, ex-Medellin Mayor Sergio Fajardo.

The Liberal Party endorses Ivan Duque, right-wing opponent of the peace deal.

Finally, after choosing a pro-peace candidate in the first round, in the presidential campaign's second round the Liberals endorsed Ivan Duque, the political heir of ex-President Alvaro Uribe, furious critic of the peace negotiations. A voter could be forgiven for wondering what the Liberals stand for -if anything.

By Mike Ceaser, of Bogotá Bike Tours

A Vote for Petro is a Vote for...Duque?

That's the thesis of Daniel Coronell, veteran columnist of Semana magazine, executive of Univision and perpetual critic of ex-Pres. Alvaro Uribe, who happens to be the political patron of right-wing presidential candidate Ivan Duque.

Daniel Coronell and Gustavo Petro (inset).

As Coronell sees things, many politically moderate and conservative Colombians are terrified that if leftist Gustavo Petro is elected president he'll turn Colombia into another Venezuela. Their fears might not be completely unfounded. Altho Petro was a respected congressman and as Bogotá mayor he did nothing more radical than causing a crisis by foolishly handing over the city's garbage service to the water company, during the 1980s he was a leader of the M-19 guerrilla group. His guerrilla past might be excused as youthful idealism if not for the fact that Petro has repeatedly refused to criticize the government of Venezuela, which has run that nation's economy into the ground, trampled civil liberties, become increasingly authoritarian and generally transformed what should be the region's wealthiest nation into a disaster area.

More than a million Venezuelan refugees have fled into Colombia, so Petro can hardly plead ignorance about the scale of the humanitarian disaster there. Petro's silence about Venezuela probably isn't due to political interests, since Colombians' rejection of the Venezuelan government seems to be overwhelming. So that makes one wonder whether Petro, if he's elected, hopes to make deals with the Venezuelan regime - and that is a scary thought.

All of which might make more and more centrist Colombians support Duque just to stop Petro. (On the other hand, of course, a vote for Duque could also be called a vote for Petro.)

Coronell's comments didn't sit well with either the left or the right. Uribe warned him to watch out, as president Duque would review media licenses. Uribe's comments were immediately condemned as a threat to freedom of the media, which Uribe denied.

Duque also scares many people, who see him as the political puppet of Uribe, who selected him to be the Centro Democratico party's standard bearer. As president from 2002 to 2010, Uribe beat back the FARC guerrillas, but at a tremendous cost in human rights. And Uribe displayed a paranoia about the media, human rights defenders and his political opponents, whom he often saw as guerrilla sympathizers.

If recent polls are any guide, Duque has a lock on making into the second round of presidential

Ivan Duque, Colombia's next president?

voting, where he'll be the overwhelming favorite to defeat petro or any other candidate who runs against him. The best prospect to stop Duque might be for the centrist presidential candidates to ally themselves and attract some voters from both extremes - but that looks like a longshot.

But, even in the case of a Duque victory, Colombia's many Uribe haters can hold on to hope. After all, years before Uribe selected Duque to carry on his policies, he selected his defense minister Juan Manuel Santos to do the same thing. Santos was elected president, and still holds the office. But in addition to fighting the FARC guerrillas, Santos entered into peace negotiations with them, infuriating Uribe, who became Santos' political enemy. A similar things happened in Ecuador.

The same might yet happen with Duque. God bless term limits!

By Mike Ceaser, of Bogotá Bike Tours

The Military March for Congress

During a bike tour today, we crossed paths with these unusual political marchers: ex-soldiers running for Congress.

One man told us that they had 10 candidates this year: 'We're going to run the government,' he predicted.

A military-run government might be a disturbing idea for many, particularly in a nation whose military has directly carried out or colluded with horrendous human rights violations, most notoriously the 'false positives' scandal, in which military units killed thousands of young men and disguised them as guerrillas in order to earn time off and bonuses. Colombia's military also supported paramilitary units which committed terrorism against civilians, including massacring villagers with chainsaws.

Soldiers want to be tried in their own military courts, she said.

Which is not to say that the military has not also played a valuable role, such as extending rule of law over parts of Colombia and protecting civilians from illegal armed groups, or that it should not have a voice in society. But in a country of laws and democracy, the military should be subordinate to civilian authorities.

Colombia's military is understandably uneasy about the peace treaty with the FARC guerrillas, which gives guerrillas a slap on the risk for sometimes horrific crimes, as well as eight seats in Congress. The peace agreement also provides near impunity for many guerrilla crimes, including narcotrafficking, as long as they were done in furtherance of the guerrillas' revolutionary ends. Ex-FARC leader Timochenko is now campaigning for the presidency, altho he has no chance of winning.

Military leaders may want to run their own candidates in order to counterbalance the ex-guerrilla politicians.

'We're going to run the country,' he boasted to us.

Soldiers are also fearful that the peace treaty could mean punishing soldiers for war-related crimes while guerrillas get off scot-free. That's why one young woman accompanying the march told us that the soldiers want to be tried for crimes in military rather than civilian courts. But human rights advocates say that soldiers should be tried in civilian courts for crimes not related to the conflict, such as sexual violence.

Marching along 26th Street.

By Mike Ceaser, of Bogotá Bike Tours

All One Powerful Family?

Racero explained the politicians' inteconnected ness.

It smacks of conspiracy, but it is reality. And maybe it's inevitable in a nation with such a tiny political and economic class and severely unequal distributions of property and income.

This afternoon, David Racero, candidate for Congress, was standing near the Plaza Santander

Racero asks whether we should just reelect the same families?

explaining a series of charts with the help of a long pointer. And whereas other candidates denounce their opponents or boast about themselves, Racero was analysing Colombia's ruling class, person by person.

It turns out Racero would have it, that Colombia's ruling politicians have long belonged to a tiny elite, mostly linked together by blood or marriage. And Racero is right.

Colombia's current president Juan Manuel Santos, is a perfect example of this phenomenon. Santos' great ganduncle Eduard Santos Montejo, was president from 1938 to '42 and Santos' cousin Francisco Santos was vice president under Pres. Alvaro Uribe and has tried to run for president. The family was also the long-time owner of Colombia's dominant newspaper, El Tiempo.

Racero proceeded to detail similar, if less dramatic, connections between other politicians.

He's connected to him

German Vargas Lleras, who until recently was Santos' vice president and is now running for president, is the grandson of one president and more distantly related to another one.

Perhaps it's not surprising. Colombia has a small traditional political class, and they undoubtely help each other reach office.

And perhaps it's not all bad. Sure, dominance by a few means that only certain perspectives get heard, and many very capable people have no chance to reach office. However, the dominant families may also feel a double responsibility - to their nation, and also to their family's legacy - to do a good job and not be corrupt.

And current president Santos, the insider of insiders, hasn't done a bad job. The economy is moving steadily ahead, the government ended the half-century conflict with the FARC guerrillas, and Santos won the Nobel Peace Prize in the process.

And for all his distaste for the 'establishment', I suspect that Racero would prefer Pres. Santos to the Casa de Nariño's previous resident, hard-right Pres. Alvaro Uribe - who had no political connections.

And I suspect that many U.S. citizens, no matter their distaste for the Clinton and Bush families, would rather have one of them in the White House than its current resident, who had no family political connections, either.

By Mike Ceaser, of Bogotá Bike Tours

The New FARC

FARC political party campaigners on Carrera Septima last night.

Bicycling down Carrera Septima last night I came upon this group of FARC members on campaign.

Men debate while holding FARC flyers.

But let's be clear: These were not the old guerrilla FARC, but the new political FARC: the Alternative Revolutionary Force of the Common People. The same initials as the armed guerrilla organization, and many of the same people, but a whole different nature.

That they have really changed became clear to me when I heard their discourse: It was standard,
boring and political: Lots of promises about equality and vows to improve healthcare, increase equality and improve security.

Call them hypocritical if you like. After all, not long ago, the FARC guerrillas were out there kidnapping and assassinating politicians, driving peasants off of their land, and in general generating all the sorts of problems and suffering they are now campaigning against.

The new FARC will not likely be any more successful than they were in their previous incarnation at accomplishing these goals. However, at least they are now playing the political game instead of tearing their nation apart. In that, the deeply flawed peace treaty at least accomplished a whole lot.

Selling peace and prosperity, under the eye of McDonald´s.

A man, in blue jacket, hugs a FARC senate candidate.

By Mike Ceaser, of Bogotá Bike Tours

The Cynicism of Timochenko

FARC leader Timochenco, who created
millions of victims, is suddenly
concerned for them.

Timochenco, the ex-leader of the FARC guerrillas, and now presidential candidate of the FARC political party, apparently has a new mission: to fight for the rights of the victims of Colombia's armed conflict.

That's really interesting, since Timochenco, whose real name is Rodrigo Londoño Echeverri, created innumerable victims himself as leader of the FARC guerrillas, who kidnapped, committed massacres, recruited children, forced women to have abortions and drove millions of peasants off of their land during their half-century of existence.

None of which, however, means that Timochenco's concerns are misplaced. In fact, the peace deal between the FARC and the government will mean widespread impunity for both soldiers and guerrillas, some of are eligible for political office despite being guilty of crimes against humanity. Timochenco, for his part, has been sentenced to hundreds of years in prison for myriad crimes. Those sentences will be suspended, however, as long as he participates in the JEP, the transitory judicial structure created to try ex-guerrillas and soldiers. Meanwhile, Timochenco is running for president.

Another group who will get off with a slap on the wrist are ranchers and businessmen who financed

Creating victims: Residents of the town of Bojayá, Chocó
clean up the church destroyed by a FARC cylinder bomb
which killed about 100 people.

illegal armed groups such as the guerrillas and their paramilitary enemies. The payments are known as vacunas, or 'vaccinations,' and opinions are polarized over whether those who made such payments are victims or criminals. In many cases, those who refused to pay off the outlaw groups have been kidnapped or murdered or had their livestock stolen. But many allege that landowners and corporations paid off illegal groups which returned the favor by driving peasants off of land the wealthy desired.

Ex-Pres. Alvaro Uribe also appears to have gotten off easy under the court's recent interpretation of the peace agreement. Uribe, who comes from a ranching family and whose father was murdered by the FARC, has been investigated multiple times for alleged links to right-wing death squads which flourished during his time in power. However, as an ex-president, he will enjoy immunity.

Yet, while it is certainly true that the conflict's victims will recieve short shrift, a successful peace process will hopefully reduce the number of victims created in the first place.

By Mike Ceaser, of Bogotá Bike Tours

The Venezuelan Opposition's Moment

A selfie with the crowd in back, as Venezuelans voted today on Plaza Bolivar.

'The people decide!

Colombia has filled during recent years with Venezuelan political and economic refugees, and today they showed their strength. Thousands filled Plaza Bolivar for a plebiscite designed to weaken Venezuela's increasingly hapless, corrupt and authoritarian government.

The opposition's positions will win overwhelmingly - and the government will ignore it and continue
with carreening toward dictatorship. On July 30, the government plans to hold a vote vote to elect an assembly to rewrite the nation's Constitution. But the voting system and representation were designed by the Venezuelan government to guarantee itself a majority.

The people decide!, on three
questions designed to
weaken the government.

Interestingly, the Maduro government has recently suspended regional elections it was sure to lose, arguing that with oil prices low it could not afford to hold the vote. However, it did miraculously find the money to hold the constitutional assembly vote it plans to wind.

The government in Caracas has also used its packed Supreme Court to nullify all decisions taken by parliament, which is overwhelmingly dominated by the opposition.

Today's ballot, designed and promoted by the MUD opposition coalition to Venezuelan Pres. Nicolás Maduro, contained three questions:

- Do you reject the constitutional assembly planned by Nicolas Maduro without the previous approval of the Venezuelan people?

- Do you demand that the armed forces and all public functionaries obey the 1999 Constitution and back the decisions of the National Assembly.

'Gochos united in Bogotá.' Gochos are people
born in the Venezuelan state of Tachira.

- Do you approve of the public authorities and the creation of a national union government and the holding of free and transparent elections to restore the constitutional order.

Many observers believe that in Venezuela power ultimately rests with the military. Opposition leaders argue that the government has violated the 1999 Constitution, written under the leadership of the now-deceased Hugo Chavez and would like the military to refuse to obey the government.

.Whatever happens in Venezuela: Continued crisis, outright dictatorship, revolution or civil war, it will mean huge impacts on Colombia, in terms of trade and immigration.

In a celebratory mood, Venezuelans oppositionists line up to vote on Plaza Bolivar.

Painting Venezuelan flags.

A Venezuelan exile's sign: 'Maduro, it's your fault that my children miss their grandparents.'

Venezuelan government opponents pack the Plaza Bolivar.

Venezuelans walk to vote.

By Mike Ceaser, of Bogotá Bike Tours

Censorship at Rock al Parque?

Venezuelan heavy metaler Paul Gillman, apparently booted from this year's Rock al Parque.

Paul Gillman is one of Venezuela's biggest rock stars of recent decades. But he is also an outspoken Chavista - a supporter of the leftist movement founded by the late Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. And those politics appear to have gotten him kicked out of this year's Rock al Parque music festival.

That political movement has fallen into severe disrepute in recent years, particularly in Colombia, as Venezuela has become more authoritarian, government forces have violated protesters' rights, and the country's economy has tailspun.

But through it all, Gillman, 57, has remained loyal to the Bolivarian Revolution (a bit reminiscent of the True Believers who kept their faith in Stalin's Soviet Union long after its horrific human rights abuses had become common knowledge), calling himself '100% revolutionary.'

Brothers in revolution: Gillman with the late Hugo Chavez.

Concert organizar Idartes' announcement that Gillman would participate spurred protests on Twitter, led by Colombian businessman Julio Correal, one of the festival's founders. 'I'm not the owner of this festival, but if I can cry out against one of (Venezuelan Pres. Nicolas) Maduro's activists, I will always do it,' Correral tweeted.

Call Gillman ignorant, naive, stupid, or whatever - but he's part of a long tradition of artists, such as Pete Seeger and Paul Robeson, whose ideals blinded them to terrible realities. Seeger's and Robeson's musical talents don't get recalibrated because of their faith in the Soviet Union, so why should Gillman's Colombian fans be deprived of his music because he supports a rotten regime like Venezuela's?

Rock al Parque 2017.

The organizers of Rock al Parque, said to be the largest free concert in South America, allege that the festival has always been apolitical - which is a bit difficult to believe. According to the cultural magazine Arcadia, the Venezuelan group Caramelos de Cianuro, which performed at last year's Rock al Parque, is 'clearly aligned with the opposition' to the Venezuelan government. And even if Gillman were to start ranting in favor of la revolucion bonita during his performance, would it make any difference? Not many rock fans are likely to be either persuaded or offended, if they can even make out the words in Gillman's heavy metal lyrics.

Some justified booting Gillman for 'security' reasons. Could Gillman's performance really trigger violence? If that's the real concern, it would mean permitting a small, violent minority to decide what the rest of us can see and hear.

In a letter posted on the Internet, Gillman, who still plans to perform in Colombia at the end of May, called the decision to cancel his performance "unprecedented."

'In Rock al Parque's 23 years...there has never been a similar situation in which an artist with 40 years of experience has been removed for reasons completely removed from music,' he wrote.

He also told the El Tiempo newspaper that Rock al Parque "allowed itself to be carried away by one person's hate."

Paradoxically, as of May 13 Gillman was still listed among the festival's international invitees.

'Without a doubt, (Gillman) is one of the foundational figures of rock (in Venezuela) and across all out continent, and one of the most eagerly awaited in the festival's history.'

His fans will have to wait longer now.

By Mike Ceaser, of Bogotá Bike Tours

DJLU Does Donald Trump

Colombia had better watch out. If Donald Trump, who is now (gag) president-elect of the United States, decides to make a Latin American nation his scapegoat, Colombia may be it: We've got terrorists here, and lots of illegal drugs headed toward the U.S. border, and even Latinos.

DJLU, one Bogotá's best-known street artists, stencils pithy messages on city walls. A lot of them seem to critique Trumpian values:

Trump may stumble the world into war - or barge into it.

In the Trumpian world, the super-rich like himself certainly outweigh the common people. And those hard-working common people, who've heavily supported Trump, will be left worse off when Trump starts slashing millionares' taxes.

A bullet-headed sperm. Sex and violence and Donald Trump. What more is there to say?

In the U.S., white evangelicals, who also happen to generally be enthusiastic supporters of easy access to guns, strongly supported Trump - despite Trump's multiple marriages, affairs and predilection for sexually assaulting women. Doesn't the Bible say 'Thou shalt not kill.'?

Trump means to loosen even more gun restrictions. The U.S. has the highest homicide rate in the developed world, and a U.S. free market in firearms already supplies guns to drug cartels in Latin America. Some of those weapons have appeared in Colmbia. Under Trump, firearm proliferation will boom, and some of those weapons rain down on Colombia, where they'll facilitate killings by drug cartels.

Land mines, sewn by guerrillas, are one of the most cruel and preverse weapons used in Colombia's civil war. Trump will almost certainly retreat from involvement across the continent, and reduce support for Colombia's peace agreement.

Internet spying, by Russia in particular, hurt Hillary Clinton's campaign. Leaks can help transparency, but in this case they produced Donald Trump, who is the least transparent politician seen in a long, long time.

Expect Trump to weaken environmental safeguards and abandon efforts to slow global warming, which he's said is a 'Chinese conspiracy.' The Trumpian planet Earth is a time bomb.

My impression of many Trump voters, who got manipulated by propaganda, stereotypes and organizations such as the NRA. Many of Trump's supporters are lower-income whites. Here, they've elected a man who will work to benefit the rich, and hurt working people's interests.

As an addendum, here's an anguished message I received today from a mixed-race woman from Colombia who lives (legally, as a U.S. citizen) in a midwestern U.S. state which voted for Trump, where she has a small business.

 I am very sad.  I have cried every day.  The situation is going to be very difficult for me as I represent what Trump followers hate.  Hopefully I will be safe. I hope God protects me from those crazies. 

The world is now in danger. 

Bye,

A final question: Brexit, the plebiscite's 'No' vote and now Trump: What's happening to the world?

By Mike Ceaser, of Bogotá Bike Tours

On Clinton vs. Trump, it's No Contest

Clinton for president of the U.S.

Tuesday's U.S. presidential vote will be a monumental event for both the U.S. and for the world. El Tiempo's editorial section today is full of column's about the election - all warning about the dire consequences of a Trump victory. And anybody who's followed this blog has no doubt where I fall, for the interests of Colombia, the U.S. and the globe.

El Tiempo's editorialists point out the likeliest immediate consequences for Colombia of a Donald Trump victory: a reduction in aid and more barriers to trade and immigration. Trump's discourse is erratict and his policies unclear, but he speaks like an isolationist. That suggests that he'd cut back on the post-Plan Colombia aid programs and reduce support for any peace processes here. Trump might also kill free trade agreements with Colombia, as he's denounced such agreements with Mexico.

Trump's evident hostility to and even racism against Hispanics would not help relations, either.

El Tiempo's editorialists also point out that most economists predict a recession if Trump wins and

The dangers are endless.

imposes protectionist trade policies and slashes taxes for rich people like himself, which would balloon the U.S.'s budget deficit.

Trump's authoritarianess, as eloquently described by the Washington Post's libertarian Volokh Conspiracy blog  could not only endanger the U.S.'s constitutional system, but also set a terrible example for weak democracies in Latin America.

Trump "is thrilled by the kind of authoritarian government that the Colonists fought a revolution to end." writes Volokh. "His world is a world of conspiracy theories, not reason and evidence. It is a world of putting your opponent in a jail cell after the election, not peaceful transitions of power. It is a world of mob violence, not law. It is a world of crushing political dissent, not limited government."  

The Volokh writers compare the U.S.'s possible future under Trump to Venezuela, where democratically-elected presidents have trampled institutions, converted the oil-rich nation into a near-dictatorship and, along the way, also devastated its economy. 

Trump's ignorance and denial of reality on environmental issues, particularly climate change, is yet another disqualifier. Climate change is already affecting Colombia and would undoubtedly accelerate under Trump policies.

I could go on about Trump's misogyny and sexual predation, his lack of political experience, his rotten business ethics, his instability, his evident affection for violence and for authoritarian leaders such as Russia's Vladimir Putin, and perhaps most of all the danger of a man like him controlling nuclear weapons - but you get the picture.

Hillary Clinton certainly also has her ethics challenges. But, as an experienced politician she's performed competently and has generally respected constitutional norms, as Volokh, normally no friend of liberals, points out. And Clinton would undoubtedly continue the Obama administration's policies of engagement with the world and Latin America. And her economic policies would likely continue those Obama, who has shepherded the U.S. out of a deep recession into a slow but sustained recovery. Even with the rise of China, Latin America's economy still depends heavily on that of the U.S.

For Colombia, for the U.S., for the planet and for decency, support Clinton.

By Mike Ceaser, of Bogotá Bike Tours

And What Now?

No party here. On Plaza Bolivar, soldiers truck away
decorations intended for a SI victory celebration.

Against most expectations, and a full-press propaganda campaign by the government and major media, Colombians voted to reject the peace accord with the FARC guerrillas.

So, what happens now?

The guerrillas are already half demobilized, and looking forward to a different life.

The guerrilla leaders have gotten used to a comfortable life at the negotiation table in Havana, and don't want to return to jungle.

The government has stopped fighting the guerrillas, and prepared plans and resources for the post-war. Those are suddenly useless.

Only with difficulty can the nation turn back. But how can they go forward with a deal rejected, albeit by a tiny proportion of voters?

People debate the NO vote
on Plaza Bolivar.

But if the Santos government does try advancing with the deal in the face of public rejection, many

This man objected to impunity for
guerrillas and soldiers guilty of
human rights violations..

guerrillas may not cooperate, knowing that if supporters of ex-Pres. Uribe win the next election, they could reject the Santos government's commitments and send the guerrillas to prison.

Renewed negotiations could last years, leaving thousands of armed guerrillas sitting restless in their camps looking for something to do, with no assurance that new negotiations will be more successful. If impunity for crimes committed by the guerrillas and soldiers is why Colombians rejected the current deal, would the two sides ever accept prison terms?

The peace agreement, with its broad impunity, was deeply flawed, but may have been the best one possible.

Someone debating on Plaza Bolivar this evening suggested that the Uribistas, who rejected this peace

Voting in central Bogotá. Most Bogotanos
backed the SI, but not enough.

deal but insist that they really do want peace, should now handle the negotiations with the FARC. But sincere talks between two such fierce enemies are almost unthinkable.

And will the bilateral ceasefire continue?

And what about the ELN guerrillas, who have been talking about entering peace talks? The public's rejection of the FARC deal shatters hopes of negotiations with them. The ELN will now stay in the mountains, kidnapping, murdering and sabotaging infrastructure.

Could Santos launch a new offensive against the same guerrillas with whom he just reached a peace deal? Santo was, after all, minister of defense during Pres. Uribe's successful military offensive against the same guerrillas in the early 2000s. But now the FARC have become his political allies against Uribe. He's unlikely to start killing them.

If one thing is clear, this loss devastates the presidency of Santos, who planned to make peace his legacy and resurrects Uribe, who led a military offensive against the guerrillas.

It seems likely that many Colombians rejected the peace agreement because of the impunity it gave the FARC, who committed innumerable human rights violations.

LGBTI for the SI.

One man, who identified himself as a Christian evangelical, objected to the agreement's 'impunity' for both guerrillas and soldiers. The soldiers guilty of the 'false positive' killings "will walk away laughing," he said.

Jaime, a middle-aged man who owns a pizzeria here in La Candelaria, said he voted No because of the stipends and subsidies guerrillas were to receive. His family, who owned a farm in Antioquia, had been driven off of their land by guerrillas, and relatives murdered, he said.

"Why should I pay those people with my tax money," he said.

But it also exposes lack of confidence in the government, which put all its energy behind the peace accord.

More broadly, this vote, together with Brexit, might indicate a generalized public rejection of establishment opinion - making me more fearful that Donald Trump could be the next U.S. president.

Colombians go to sleep tonight with their future uncertain.

But if something positive came out of this, it's the proof that Colombia has a real democracy in which the population can reject the president's most important policy.

By Mike Ceaser, of Bogotá Bike Tours