Adiós Petro?

'Petro Stays, Damnit!' says a poster at a pro-Petro march this afternoon. 

How much longer will Mayor Gustavo Petro govern Bogotá?

Petro's first challenge was a recall referendum. Petro first tried to stop the recall, then said he would not try to stop the vote from going forward, and then mounted a series of legal challenges, which look likely to create long delays for the vote. (But today Petro lost in two court challenges to the recall.)

Petro has battled the recall referendum despite the fact that it appears unlikely to succeed. Petro may not win a popularity contest, but his opponents will have a hard time fulfilling the voter participation requirement for a special election. By opposing the recall referendum, Petro also looks like a hypocrite, since he participated in the 1991 Constitutional Convention which wrote the right to a recall into Colombia's Constitution.

Bogotá's vacant La Santamaria bullring. If Petro goes,
bullfighting may return here.

Petro also added a threatening note by saying that, if he is recalled, it could cause a response like the one which followed ex-dictator Gustavo Rojas Pinillas' controversial 1970 presidential election defeat. After official results gave a narrow victory to a conservative candidate, the supporters of Rojas Pinilla - then a populist, nationalist figure - cried fraud and founded the M-19 guerrillas, of whom Petro was a leader. Petro's comment is disturbing and worrisome coming from a man who supposedly abandoned the insurgency and decided to work within the democratic system.

But now Petro faces a more immediate

Cyclists on Ave. Septima. If Petro goes, the pedestrianization
of La Septima and the city's bike-lending
program probably will, too.

threat. Attorney General Alejandro Ordoñez wants to oust Petro for incompetence. Petro has certainly made mistakes, in particular involving last year's reorganization of the city's trash collection system, which resulted in huge piles of garbage on streetcorners and sidewalks late last year.

But if mishandling city policies were a legitimate basis for removing a mayor, then few city halls would be staffed today. Rather, Petro should have to pay at the polls next year for the garbage problem. It's hard to ignore the fact that Ordoñez is an arch conservative who would undoubtedly sigh with relief if Petro, an ex-leader of the M-19 guerrilla group, were ousted from office.

Petro has until Nov.6 to respond to Ordoñez's charges against him.

Petro has alienated voters in other ways, with a controversial urban land-use plan and new tax liens for infrastructure projects. He's also created allies, including animal rights supporters, who appreciate his decision to stop bullfighting and bicyclists, who like the fact that part of Ave. Septima is closed to cars.

But Petro's suporters can't measure up to his powerful opponents.

By Mike Ceaser, of Bogotá Bike Tours

Neo-Nazis vs. Petro

Posters on the Plaza del Chorro opposing Mayor Petro and the FARC guerrillas, placed by the Union Nacional Socialista, a neo-Nazi group.(Photo: El Espectador)

Is the campaign to recall Bogotá Mayor Gustavo Petro a neo-Nazi initiative?

'Petro is staying!' A Petro campaign tent on Plaza Bolivar.

Of course it isn't. The recall's main advocates is Miguel Gómez Martínez, of the conservative Partido de la U, who says that under Petro's watch the city has become chaotic, that Petro mismanaged the city's garbage collection and that City Hall policies are hurting the TransMilenio system and the construction industry. Some of the arguments on Gomez's website actually sound leftist: That Petro has reduced the nutrition in school lunches and the shuttered soup kitchens and neighborhood centers for poor women and children.

But the effort to cut short the term of the leftist mayor and ex-guerrilla has, disturbingly, attracted the support of far-right organizations.

A Gustavo Petro campaign poster. 

In June, Angelica Lozano, a city councilwoman from Petro's Progresista party and a leader of the LGBTI community, released a telephone recording which seemed to show that the neo-Nazi organization Tercera Fuerza had planned a meeting in a building used by Creo Colombia, a youth group which backs conservative ex-Pres. Alvaro Uribe, and which has collected signatures for the recall effort.

More recently, posters from a national socialist organization backing the recall appeared in La Candelaria.

The recall's mainstream backers, who have reasonable if debatable arguments for wanting Petro out, aren't responsible for their extremist supporters. However, they should make it clear that they do not share those groups' ideas and don't want to associate with them.

Altho Petro's popularity is under 50%, the mayor seems confident that he will be able to beat back the recall. His experts are now reviewing the lists of signatures, many of which Petro claims are not valid. To oust him, Petro's opponents must accomplish two things: Get a majority of the votes cast in the recall and also motivate more than 1.2 million bogotanos to participate in the special election. The second is the most challenging, and, according to experts, nearly impossible. For his part, Petro has two strategies to choose from: He can either call on his supporters to boycott the vote, hoping that the minimum participation requirement wouldn't be reached, or campaign to win a majority. The first strategy is probably more realistic, but winning a majority would give his government an endorsement.

A neo-Nazi poster in central Bogotá denounces communism and the FARC guerrillas. 

Free Colombia! (Courtesy of the National Socialists)

By Mike Ceaser, of Bogotá Bike Tours

If Mayor Petro Goes...

If Mayor Petro is recalled, the bike lane and pedestrian space on Ave. Septima will likely disappear.

The other day, opponents of Bogotá Mayor Gustavo Petro turned in far more than the required 290,000 signatures required to call a special election to recall him.

The signature collection campaign reportedly cost nearly 50 million pesos, meaning that there are deep

Young bullfighters practice in Bogotá's Santamaria Plaza.
If Petro goes, the bullfighting season will probably return.

pockets behind it who believe it can succeed. The recall election itself could cost 40 billion pesos - a huge sum for something which political analysts seem to think has little chance of succeeding. That's not because Petro is popular, but because obtaining the required 1.2 million voters to participate in a special election is so difficult for a that it's never been achieved before.

Petro has certainly stepped on toes and ruffled feathers since taking office in January 2012. An ex-leader of the M-19 guerrillas, Petro generated strong feelings from the start. He then angered store owners and restauranters - while earning the gratitude of cyclists and pedestrians - by banning cars from a stretch of Ave. Septima during the daytime.

Petro also antagonized ranchers and bullfighting fans, while pleasing animal rights activists, by banning la fiesta brava in Bogotá's Santamaria Plaza.

An old tranvia, or streetcar, parked beside the Gaitan Museum.
Mayor Petro wants to build a light rail line on Ave. Septima,
but if he goes, so will this controversial plan.

He also generated unflattering headlines by fumbling a remaking of the city's trash collection system, which had garbage piling high on streetcorners for a week.

But leaders of the recall effort said that what really fired up their campaign was the valorization tax intended to fund neighborhood infrastructure improvements. Nobody likes paying taxes. Ironically, that tax has been repeatedly postponed and neighborhoods constantly complain about their need for such works.

A traffic jam on the chaotic Ave. Septima, which would
change fundamentally with a light rail line. Petro also
wants to impose a congestion charge to replace the
failed pico y placa policy.

On the other hand, during Petro's mayoralty the homicide and poverty rates have dropped, and the city has poured money into services for the poor.

Petro's transit plans, including a light rail line for Ave. Septima and replacing the failed pico y placa policy a congestion charge, are also polemic and would undoubtedly die if his term ends early. However, it seems to me that both would be great contributions to Bogotá's increasingly unsustainable transit situation.

Authorities now have three months to review the collected signatures. If they have enough valid signatures, a special recall election will be held. If more than 1.2 million people vote in the election, of whom more than half vote for the recall, Petro's term will end. (What I don't know is whether he can run to succeed himself.)

By Mike Ceaser, of Bogotá Bike Tours