A Dangerous Idea: Invading Venezuela

Semana magazine calls invading Venezuela 'Playing with fire.'

As Venezuela's disintegration accelerates and millions of economic and political refugees spill across its borders - especially into Colombia - talk is increasing about a radical solution: military invasion to replace the corrupt, incompetent and anti-democratic government in Caracas.

But even tho there's little doubt that a rational, democratic government would greatly benefit

'I'm Venezuelan and have three children.' A Venezuelan man
begs near Bogotá's Simon Bolivar Park.

  Venezuela's desperate people as well as neighboring countries, a military attack - likely involving the United States, Colombia and maybe Brazil - could make things much worse.

Notwithstanding Venezuelan Pres. Maduro's boass and blusters, as well as Venezuela's purchases of Chinese and Russian armaments, his military wouldn't last long against experienced forces such as those of Colombia or the United States. A few years ago, when Chávez mobilized forces, many tanks broke down before even reaching the border. Years of worsening corruption and shortages later, the Venezuelan military's preparedness must be much worse.

But that doesn't mean an invasion would be clean and bloodless. Venezuela's army would fight long enough to generate foreign casualties, and, as in all conflicts, innocent civilian bystanders would suffer and even be killed. In addition, Maduro's government has recruited and propagandized citizen militias. The militia members, who include housewives and cab drivers, would be no match against a real armed forces. However, the Venezuelan regime would not hesitate to sacrifice these fanatics as cannon fodder, compounding the tragedy.

Imagine the images of hapless Venezuelan men and women, even if militia members, getting shot down by foreign soldiers. No matter who pushed them into the line of fire, it would be devastating for the images of the invading nations.

Meanwhile, Chavista loyalists would sabotage infrastructure, compounding the mayhem and making rebuilding much harder. And, in its death throes, The warplanes which Venezuela has purchased from Russia could attack Colombian ports, bridges and oil refineries, bringing death, destruction and environmental carnage to Colombian territory.

And then would come the occupation and nation building, amidst continued protests, violent counterattacks and sabotage.

And what good would all this carnage do? How would foreign governments put Venezuela back on its feet? The nation's courts are corrupt puppets of Maduro; its democratic institutions are disfunctional. Venezuela's most relatively intact institutions, its police and the military, are also corrupt and involved in drug trafficking and severe human rights absuses. What left to build a new state on?

Meanwhile, most Latin American nations have made clear that, as much as they dislike the Venezuelan regime, they oppose even more the idea of Washington removing a government it doesn't like.

Much better, it seems, would be to let the Maduro fall on his own. However, that might take a long, ,long time: Venezuela's disastrous condition may only strengthen Maduro's grip on power by driving his opponents out of the country, while those who remain behind are dependent on government subsidies - and therefore afraid to defy Maduro. Meanwhile, you can bet that Maduro and his circle are living in luxury.

Of course, washington could accelerate Venezuela's colapse, albeit at the cost of even more suffering for the Venezuelan people, with one very simple measure: boycott Venezuelan oil. Ironically, the U.S. continues to be the largest buyer of Venezuelan crude. But U.S. officials fear raisig the cost of gasoline even a few cents.


Unfortunately, don't expect Venezuela's crisis to end anytime soon.

By Mike Ceaser, of Bogotá Bike Tours

A Prince's Polemical Plaque

British ships attack Cartagenas in 1741. (Image from Wikipedia.com) 

In early March 1741, a massive British colonial fleet of 186 ships and 23,600 men, including 12,000 infantry, attacked the port city of Cartagena, defended by only 6 ships and 6,000 men, as well as its famous forts and shore batteries.

Cartagena Mayor Dionisio Vélez, on left, and Prince Charles,
on right, unveil the polemical plaque.
(Photo from the prince's website.)

Spanish Admiral Blas de Lezo, who
commanded the defense.
(Image from Wikipedia.com)

Spanish Admiral Blas de Lezo chose to make a fighting retreat. During the next two months, the British troops, commanded by Admiral Edward Vernon, took one Spanish defensive fortification after another. But they were losing men at a horrific rate, to both Spanish guns and to tropical diseases.

In May, the humiliated British withdrew, having lost 18,000 men killed or injured, as well as their goal of wresting the fabulously valuable Caribbean colonies away from Spain. Spain's South American empire would survive another 70 years.

Meanwhile, back in London, the government believing that its forces had won, and had already issued coins celebrating the 'victory.' When news of the disaster arrived, King George ordered the coins removed from circulation and prohibited anyone from talking or writing about the defeat.

British Admiral Edward Vernon.
(Image from Wikipedia.com)

Today, the British are no longer mum about one of their greatest naval defeats. During Prince Charles' visit last week, he and the mayor of Cartagena unveiled a plaque 'In memory of the valor and suffering of all those who died in combat attempting to take the city and the fort of San Felipe, under the command of the Admiral Edward Vernon in Cartagenas de Indias in 1741. Presented by the Corporación Centro Histórico de Cartagena de Indias'.

During the ceremony, the Cartageneros were blinded by the prince's star power. But by the next day, they were complaining. After all, why had the city spent public funds to pay tribute to foreigners who attacked it? How about commemorating the Cartageneros who died courageously defending their city (and the Spanish empire)?

Coins minted to commemorate the
great British 'victory' in Cartagena.
(Photo: Wikipedia)

They have a point, but could profit by looking at the ironies of history. After all, the Cartageneros were fighting so heroically to preserve the Spanish empire, which less than a century later they would be fighting against for Colombia's independence. During that 1810 - 1820 war of independence the British would return - this time fighting on the Colombians' side against the Spanish. There's another plaque on Plaza Bolivar commemorating the help of the British Legion, which fought alongside of Simon Bolivar.

In neither case, of course, were the British being altruistic. In both wars, the Brits wanted to weaken

Spanish control on the Americas and open the New World to British trade.

Another irony: Amongst the British imperial soldiers were many men from its north American colonies, including Lawrence Washington, half-brother of George Washington, later to become of the United States' revolution against Britain. Lawrence Washington so admired Adm. Vernon that he named the family estate Mt. Vernon in his honor. A generation later, many of these same men, or their sons, would change uniforms and fight against Britain.

The Cartageneros' complaint is valid. But they also might stop a moment and reflect that the British invaders didn't want to control Cartagena as much as to free it from Spain in order to be able to trade with South America.

So, if the British invasion had succeeded, Colombia's independence might have come a half-century sooner.

Update: Cartagena officials are discussing redoing or replacing the plaque. But, meanwhile, someone attacked it with a hammer.

By Mike Ceaser, of Bogotá Bike Tours

Colombia, Caracas and Ukraine

Pro-Russian forces illegally occupying Ukraine's Crimea.
A reason for Colombia to worry? 

Believe it or not, the growing crisis in Ukraine has implications for Colombia - and not positive ones.

Russia's occupation of Ukranian territory has, of course, troubling impacts for the whole world, not least because of the episode's multiple parallels to Hitler's first aggressions: Hitler also started off by occupying ethnically friendly parts of Czechoslovakia, as well as Austria, a German-speaking neighbor. Also like Nazi Germany, Russia is fresh from hosting an Olympics. And impossible to ignore are Russia's discriminatory laws against gays, one of the groups persecuted and murdered by the Nazis.

Putin doesn't appear to be another Hitler. But he does have big territorial ambitions, as Hitler did, and those may grow if the West doesn't stop him here. (It's hard not to ask whether Putin might have thot twice before invading Ukraine if the West had taken firm action against the Syrian dictatorship, a Russian ally, after it used poison gas to massacre its own people.)

Russian military jets' route over Colombian territory.
 (Image: Webinfomil)

Last October and November, Russian military jets flying between Nicaragua and Venezuela - two Russian allies with increasingly authoritarian governments - passed thru Colombian airspace, triggering protests from the Colombian government. Russia's goal was apparently to support Nicaragua´s claims to parts of the Caribbean controlled by Colombia.

More troubling, at the end of last month, Russia's defense minister said that Russia planned to establish military bases across Asia and Latin America, including in Venezuela and Nicaragua. To its credit, an official in Venezuela, whose Constitution declares it to be a 'territory of peace' and bans all foreign military bases, said that no Russian base would be allowed. Yet, considering Venezuela's economic crisis and its government's need for allies, I could certainly see it allowing in the Russian military and just not calling their facilities a 'base'. Venezuela, after all, is full of Cuban 'advisers,' whose presence would in a normal country be called a violation of sovereignty. Venezuela and Colombia have old border disputes in the Guajira region.

If Putin gets his way and the Russian bear is permitted to seize neighbors' territory, Colombia should worry that the Russian bullies will help their allies across the globe grab disputed territory from their own neighbors.

By Mike Ceaser, of Bogotá Bike Tours