Latin American Democracy in Retreat

Authoritarian Venezuelan
Pres. Nicolas Maduro.

In the mid-2000s, Colombia's popular and hard-right Pres. Alvaro Uribe wanted to run for a third consecutive term. But the Constitutional Court ruled against the idea, saving Colombia's fragile democratic system from falling into the grip of a strongman. Uribe instead selected his defense minister, Juan Manuel Santos, to run as his succesor. Santos won - but rebelled against his mentor, creating a sort of alternation of powers.

Similarly, in Ecuador Pres. Rafael Correa tried to maintain power by selecting his own succesor. But that man, Lenin Moreno, also rebelled against his mentor, saving Ecuador's instituations from becoming puppets of a strongman.

But Argentina did appear to be falling victim to a personality cult under the corrupt Kirchner dynasty - until Argentineans finally voted against them and elected Pres. Mauricio Macri, who is trying to clean up the Kirchners' mess.

Nicaragua's authoritarian president-for-life Daniel Ortega
and his wife, who is also his vice president.

Other Latin nations, however, have been less fortunate. In Bolivia, Nicaragua and, most notoriously, Venezuela, leftist leaders are turning themselves into presidents for life, sometimes with disastrous results in corruption, human welfare and the economy.

Now, some fear that Mexican president-elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador, known as AMLO, a
leftist populist admirer of Cuba's ex-dictator Fidel Castro who will have few checks on his power and who appears to believe more in himself than in democratic institutions, will weaken Mexican democracy, which has just suffered through a presidential term marred by flagrant corruption and is under strain from chronic drug violence.

Jair Bolsanero, potential
dictator of Brazil?

But now the greatest threats to Latin democracy are coming from Washington D.C., where a leader
 who patently does not believe in democracy is setting a deplorable example for nations which once looked to the U.S. for democratic guidance, and Brazil, which is about to elect a racist, homophobic misogenist and unapologetic admirer of military dictatorship, as president.

Brazil's importance can hardly be exaggerated. It is the largest nation in Latin America and the world's fourth-largest democracy. It is also the protector - if it can be called that - of the Amazon, one of the planet's treasures of biodiversity and storehouse of carbon dioxide. And if virtual Brazilian Pres. Jair Bolsonaro is even more extreme than Trump, Brazil's institutions are much weaker.

It's all enough to make one wonder whether Latin America (and even the planet's) brief experiment with liberal democracy was only that, and experiment, which is failing.








By Mike Ceaser, of Bogotá Bike Tours

A Dangerous Idea: Invading Venezuela

Semana magazine calls invading Venezuela 'Playing with fire.'

As Venezuela's disintegration accelerates and millions of economic and political refugees spill across its borders - especially into Colombia - talk is increasing about a radical solution: military invasion to replace the corrupt, incompetent and anti-democratic government in Caracas.

But even tho there's little doubt that a rational, democratic government would greatly benefit

'I'm Venezuelan and have three children.' A Venezuelan man
begs near Bogotá's Simon Bolivar Park.

  Venezuela's desperate people as well as neighboring countries, a military attack - likely involving the United States, Colombia and maybe Brazil - could make things much worse.

Notwithstanding Venezuelan Pres. Maduro's boass and blusters, as well as Venezuela's purchases of Chinese and Russian armaments, his military wouldn't last long against experienced forces such as those of Colombia or the United States. A few years ago, when Chávez mobilized forces, many tanks broke down before even reaching the border. Years of worsening corruption and shortages later, the Venezuelan military's preparedness must be much worse.

But that doesn't mean an invasion would be clean and bloodless. Venezuela's army would fight long enough to generate foreign casualties, and, as in all conflicts, innocent civilian bystanders would suffer and even be killed. In addition, Maduro's government has recruited and propagandized citizen militias. The militia members, who include housewives and cab drivers, would be no match against a real armed forces. However, the Venezuelan regime would not hesitate to sacrifice these fanatics as cannon fodder, compounding the tragedy.

Imagine the images of hapless Venezuelan men and women, even if militia members, getting shot down by foreign soldiers. No matter who pushed them into the line of fire, it would be devastating for the images of the invading nations.

Meanwhile, Chavista loyalists would sabotage infrastructure, compounding the mayhem and making rebuilding much harder. And, in its death throes, The warplanes which Venezuela has purchased from Russia could attack Colombian ports, bridges and oil refineries, bringing death, destruction and environmental carnage to Colombian territory.

And then would come the occupation and nation building, amidst continued protests, violent counterattacks and sabotage.

And what good would all this carnage do? How would foreign governments put Venezuela back on its feet? The nation's courts are corrupt puppets of Maduro; its democratic institutions are disfunctional. Venezuela's most relatively intact institutions, its police and the military, are also corrupt and involved in drug trafficking and severe human rights absuses. What left to build a new state on?

Meanwhile, most Latin American nations have made clear that, as much as they dislike the Venezuelan regime, they oppose even more the idea of Washington removing a government it doesn't like.

Much better, it seems, would be to let the Maduro fall on his own. However, that might take a long, ,long time: Venezuela's disastrous condition may only strengthen Maduro's grip on power by driving his opponents out of the country, while those who remain behind are dependent on government subsidies - and therefore afraid to defy Maduro. Meanwhile, you can bet that Maduro and his circle are living in luxury.

Of course, washington could accelerate Venezuela's colapse, albeit at the cost of even more suffering for the Venezuelan people, with one very simple measure: boycott Venezuelan oil. Ironically, the U.S. continues to be the largest buyer of Venezuelan crude. But U.S. officials fear raisig the cost of gasoline even a few cents.


Unfortunately, don't expect Venezuela's crisis to end anytime soon.

By Mike Ceaser, of Bogotá Bike Tours

Another Sign of the Venezuelan Invasion

A sign in the red light district offers to wire money to Venezuela.

A window sign in a different part of town
offers to send money to Venezuela.

Venezuelans everywhere! It's not news that many thousands of Venezuelans - some guesstimate more than a million - have fled into Colombia from the shrinking economy, hyperinflation and raging crime in their own country.

As a result, it seems as tho nearly every hotel, restaurant and shop has at least one Venezuelan employee.

More notoriously, reportedly many Venezuelan women have also gone into prostitution in Colombia. That was evidenced dramatically in Bogotá's red light district the other day: I saw at least four signs offering money transfers to Venezuela on a single street.

For some, prostitution must be a rational professional choice in which the dangers, risk of suffering abuses and social stigma are compensated by a relatively high income. But many Venezuelan evidently enter the profession out of sheer desperation, to bring some food home, or to send a few rapidly devaluating bolivars home to Venezuela.



By Mike Ceaser, of Bogotá Bike Tours

Do you believe it?

Maduro celebrates his election victory alongsie Maradona.

The country suffers hyperinflation a soaring homicide rate and a shrinking economy. Stores and pharmacies are bare of food, medicines and toilet paper. It's hemorraging people, who are fleeing this disaster area.

And yet the president, who is notoriously corrupt and lives high while his people suffer, got reelected by a landslide.

Does anybody at all believe that Sunday's presidential election results in Venezuela were fair and democratic?

Venezuelan president/dictator Nicolas Maduro and his crowd may have read the recent and interesting book 'How to Rig an Election,' by two British academics. The book observes that old fashioned ballot box stuffing is now passé. Instead, today's authoritarian leaders stack the deck in their own favor before a single vote gets cast, thru techniques such as registering more voters in regions where they are popular and setting up more voting stations in those same areas.

In Venezuela, the government started preparing for the election many months ago by imprisoning or banning from public office the opposition's strongest potential candidates. Maduro also linked the reception of food aid - vital in a starving nation - to allegiance to Maduro. Whether or not the government really knew which candidate voters supported didn't matter: It was the impression that counted.

That was also why the government set up red tents outside of voting stations - sometimes so close that they violated election rules - for government loyalists to check in after voting. The message was clear: 'We're rewarding you for voting for us.' Government offices also required public employees to attend pro-Maduro rallies.

These were all crude attempts to harness the still-great public resources of the nation with the world's largest oil reserves in favor of Maduro.

The government might not even have needed to manipulate the vote counts, but it probably did, anyway. After all, many election observers said that the electoral commission's reported 47% voter turnout seemed wildly exaggerated in light of the many near-vacant voting stations. After a previous election, the voting machine company, Smartmatic, charged that

Maduro has good reason to hold on to power. (His new term ends in 2025.) He and his buddies are living high while his people suffer. And, if he were to be overthrown, his enemies would surely try to prosecute Maduro for corruption and human rights violations, forcing him to take refuge with few remaining friends, in Cuba, Syria or Russia.

Instead, Venezuela will sink into even deeper misery. And hundreds of thousands or millions more Venezuelans will flood into neighboring nations. And Venezuela will lose a generation of its brightest, most motivated people.


By Mike Ceaser, of Bogotá Bike Tours

Can Venezuela Pull a Malaysia?

Najib Razak, ex-Malaysian
prime minister, who lost an
election this month.

A notoriously corrupt strongman appears to hold a lock on his country's leadership. In the run-up to elections, he uses oil income to saturate the country with his campaign ads, controls most of the media and uses gerrymandering and other tricks to ensure his reelection victory.

The nation I have in mind is Malaysia, the southeast Asian nation which held national elections ten days ago. But I might as easily be talking about Venezuela, which is to hold a vote tomorrow in which its authoritarian president Nicolas Maduro is expected to use a rigged system to get himself reelected, despite running his oil-rich nation into the ground. In both nations, the government used legal charges and technicalities to bar opposition candidates from even running in the election.

To everybody's amazement, Malaysia's opposition party won the election, and the Barisan Nasional coalition, which had ruled Malaysia since independence in 1957 lost power.

That might provide a glimmer of hope for the opposition in Venezuela in tomorrow's voting. There,

Venezuelan president/dictator Maduro.

Pres. Maduro has taken control of nearly all the media and government institutions and is allegedly using payments and intimidation to win tomorrow's election.

Colombian Pres. Santos reported this week that Colombia had seized a big shipment of food allegedly intended to be used by the Venezuelan government to pay for votes, altho much of the food was already rotten. Santos also charged that the Venezuelan government planned to give Colombians Venezuelan ID cars and have them vote for the government.

But Venezuela differs in important ways from Malaysia, where the opposition candidate who won the prime ministryship had already been prime minister, and so many people had a positive image of him. On the other hand, Malaysia's economy was fairly strong, whereas Venezuela's is in free fall, potentially motivating many people to vote against the government.

But, barring a miracle, Mauro will win reelection tomorrow and continue stiffening his dictatorial rule and worsening his nation's economic disaster. And hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans will continue pouring into Colombia.

And the Malaysian election likely has redoubled Maduro's determination to win at all costs tomorrow. After all, Malaysian's ex-leader may now be put on trial for his alleged monumental corruption.

By Mike Ceaser, of Bogotá Bike Tours

Counting the Venezuelans

Venezuelans wait in La Candelaria to register with a government office.

By some estimates, more than a million Venezuelans have fled into Colombia over the past several

years, fleeing their own nation's hyperinflation, sinking economy, soaring crime rates and empty stores and pharmacies.

Colombia has been remarkably accepting, perhaps because in past decades Venezuela received innumerable Colombians fleeing the violence here, and because many of the Venezuelans crossing the border are children or grandchildren of Colombians who fled into Venezuela.

Now, Colombia wants the Venezuelan immigrants to formulize their status here by registering.

A money-transfer place in Bogotá's red light district

Waiting to transfer money to Venezuela.

Remarkably, there's been little public resentment against the Venezuelans, except for some concern about crime and grumbling by low-income workers and prostitutes that the Venezuelans are taking away jobs. But fortunately so far in the congressional and presidential campaigns, no populist candidate has seized on the Venezuelans to get votes.

By Mike Ceaser, of Bogotá Bike Tours

Was It Fraud?

Venezuela's official election results: Overwhelmingly red.

Can a government whose popularity is in the mid-20 percentiles, whose incompetence has given its people a shrinking economy, the world's highest inflation rate and a terrifying crime rate, and driven untold thousands of its citizens to flee to Colombia, really win in almost three-quarters of its provinces?

It strains credulity, particularly since the electoral authorities also announced a high turnout of 61% of voters for a regional election.

And fraud wouldn't be unprecedented. After July elections for members of a Constitutional Assembly, which was boycotted by the opposition, the company which supplied the voting machines called the government's turn-out numbers inflated. The assembly was widely denounced as illegitimate. Venezuela is notoriously corrupt.

Caracas Chronicles, a pro-opposition website, speculated that opposition voters lost enthusiasm and did not turn out. But does it make sense that pro-government voters would turn out in big numbers when store shelves are bare of toilet paper, medicines and basic food stufs?

Perhaps information will leak out and reveal what really happened. Until then, Venezuela's crisis is only likely to worsen.

By Mike Ceaser, of Bogotá Bike Tours

The Venezuelans are Coming, and Coming

Two young men from Venezuela sell arepas on Plaza San Victorino recently.

The two employees in a stir fry place here in La Candelaria came recently from Venezuela, where one was an attorney and the other had some small businesses. A street musician whom I knew more than a dozen years ago in Caracas just showed up in La Candelaria. The other night, I was accosted by two young Venezuelan women selling arepas venezolanas. Apparently desperate, one of them placed her hand fondly on my shoulder just a few minutes after we'd met.

A Venezuelan man and boy ask for money - supposedly for
other Venezuelans - near Bogotá's Plaza Bolivar.

Colombia, which for decades sent millions of its people overseas, is now being inundated by immigrants from oil-rich Venezuela - which until not long ago was the economic envy of the rest of the continent.

The reasons are obvious: Venezuela's incompetent, increasingly authoritarian government, has caused the economy to contract nearly 20% and inflation of almost 800%, numbers usually seen only in wartime.

The Caracas Chronicles website calculates that more than 70,000 Venezuelans have come to Colombia - but nobody knows for sure, since many undoubtedly cross the border illegaly.

Venezuelans are a godsend for this year's bumper coffee crop, which is short of pickers. And I suspect that they're also helping collect Colombia's record crop of coca leaves.

According to this graph from the Caracas Chronicles blog,
the number of Venezuelans fleeing their nation far exceeds the
number of refugees crossing the Meditarrean to Europe.

The wave of foreigners has inevitably generated tensions. The two young arepa sellers talked about minor confrontations on the bus, and said that street merchants insulted and harrassed them. Undoubtedly, low income Colombians feel threatened by the wave of cheap labor. Even Colombian prostitutes have complained that Venezuelans are invading their industry, offering services at cut-rated prices.

What will happen? Venezuelan Pres. Nicolas Maduro seems determined to continue his disastrous economic policies, and shows no sign of sharing power with the oppisition. So, Venezuela will likely continue its economic tailspin, and possibly end up in some sort of civil war.

Expect the Venezuelans to keep coming.

Many thousands of Venezuelans pack Bogotá's Plaza Bolivar
during a recent vote arranged by that country's
opposition parties.

Update: A young Venezuelan woman waiting tables in a restaurant around the corner described to me a series of crimes in her country, including one when assailants threatened to shoot her dog unless she handed over valuables. She has two college degrees and back in Caracas worked in media production. Economically, she was getting by, but the crime epidemic terrified her. Via Whatsapp, she just learned that some 20 people in her community had been kidnapped in recent weeks. Those are 'express kidnappings,' in which the victim is taken to some poor neighborhood and held there until relatives deliver the ransom in euros, dollars or gold.

"The kidnappers won't accept bolivars," the fast-devaluing local currency, she added.

"The social decomposition has been terrible and really fast," she says, adding that "everybody's just out for money."

According to one poll published by the Caracas Chronicles
website, the great majority of Venezuelans
want to leave their country.

Yet, she actually seems to sympathise with the criminals. "When your salary is only enough to buy some bread and milk, how can you blame them," for being so desperate? she asks.

She's also sure that the government committed fraud to win majorities in most states in recent regional voting. After all, "who would vote for a government that's keeping you hungry?"

In fact, the Caracas Chronicles blog has published documents they say demonstrate pro-government fraud in the vote.



By Mike Ceaser, of Bogotá Bike Tours

Pence (who?) Comes to Colombia?

Yankee go home! Out with Trump/Pence!

United States Vice President Mike Pence visited Bogotá yesterday, causing little polemic - probably because nobody here's heard of him. In contrast to Pence's restraint, U.S. Pres. Trump was meanwhile busy threatening North Korea and Venezuela with military attacks and making news by failing to condemn neo Nazis and white supremecists who staged a violent protest demonstration in the state of Virginia.

Yankee Go Home! (Say the communists)

Pence reportedly talked with Colombian Pres. Santos about the boom in cocaine production and the economic and democratic  in Venezuela, whose violence might spill into Colombia. The U.S. government would like Colombia to resume using aircraft to spray Roundup on coca leaf plantations and to more strongly condemn Venezuela's authoritarian government, which is rewriting its Constitution to its pleasure.

Colombia said that it stopped using the glyphosate herbicide in mid-2015 because of concerns about it causing cancer, although many analysts considered it a conciliatory gesture to the FARC guerrillas, who make a lot of their money off of drug sales. The FARC recently signed a peace deal with the government and are in the process of demobilizing. Whatever the value of aerial spraying, the coca leaf boom was caused by more fundamental factors, such as supply and demand. As for Venezuela, its government is corrupt, incompetent and growing more and more authoritarian. But a military invasion could turn into another Vietnam and would generate tremendous sympathy for the Venezuelan government - and anger toward the U.S. Better to hope that the Maduro government collapses from its own incompetence.

About the only ones criticizing Pence's visit seem to be the communists, who plastered downtown poles with 'Yankee go home!' posters. But the communists are awkward defenders of democracy.

By Mike Ceaser, of Bogotá Bike Tours

Adiós to Venezuela's Democracy

Maduro and followers celebrate their 'victory' in rigged voting in Sunday's election.

During the 1970s and '80s, when military coups installed right-wing dictatorships across much of South America, Venezuela maintained a democracy, if a very imperfect one. Now, ironically, democracy has brought a leftist dictatorship to Venezuela.

Perhaps the best evidence of Venezuelan Pres. Nicolas Maduro's anti-democratic intentions is the fact that he never permitted regional elections supposed to be held late last year - and which his party was sure to lose. Maduro claimed that the country, which has the world's largest oil reserves, lacked the money to pay for elections, and called democracy a luxury for the elites.

Yet, miraculously, Maduro had no trouble finding the money for Sunday's constitutional assembly - which he made sure he'd win.

The Maduro government has also packed the Supreme Court, done all it could to negate the results of unfavorable elections, shuttered hostile media, imprisoned political opponents - and even briefly dissolved the opposition-dominated National Assembly.

But none of the Venezuelan government's anti-democratic measures have come close to Sunday's election of a constitutional assembly, manipulated to ensure a pro-government majority, despite Maduro's extreme unpopularity. The assembly has apparently unlimited powers to rewrite the country's constitution and remake its government.

The voting for the assembly representatives included manipulations such as giving rural voters - who have remained loyal to Maduro - disproportional representation, while reducing representation for city dwellers, who overwhelmingly reject Maduro. (Come to think of it, that arrangement is a lot like the United States' unfair and illogical Electoral College - which gave us president Trump.) And the voting system also gave pro-Maduro social organizations preponderant weight in the voting.

Government workers were ordered to vote or lose their jobs. Even so, media observers reported that voter turnout was light.

What's more, many experts say that Maduro lacked the authority to call this vote without first holding a popular referendum. But Maduro knew he'd lose any such referendum.

The Venezuelan opposition boycotted the vote in order to not give it legitimacy. As a result, Maduro's victory will be close to 100%, whether votes are counted fairly or not.

The new Constitutional Assembly's powers aren't defined, and may be unlimited. Expect Maduro to order his minions to eliminate the country's hostile National Assembly and to remove the attorney general, Luisa Ortega, a courageous politician who stood on principle in the face of the government's violations of human rights and trampling of its own Constitution.

Ortega charged that Venezuela was turning into a dictatorship.

In fact, immediately after the vote, Maduro called for removing National Assembly legislators' legal immunity and for replacing Ortega. Two prominent opposition leaders were quickly arrested.

The travesty will continue as long as Venezuela's armed forces - the police and military - continue backing Maduro, and so far they show no signs of wavering.

Already, the governments of Colombia, Mexico and Panama have said they will not recognize the voting's results. But if not, how will they deal with a government they consider illegitimate?

The U.S. and other nations have threatened the Maduro government with sanctions for holding the assembly vote. But don't expect the Trump administration to make the single move which could topple Maduro - cutting off oil sales to the United States. That's because doing so would hurt too many big corporations and lose Trump popularity among drivers.

Maduro and Trump, two incompetent, populist leaders, are also co-dependent.

By Mike Ceaser, of Bogotá Bike Tours

A Profile in Courage from Next Door

Not a 'yes woman.' Venezuelan Attorney General Luisa Ortega.

Look at authoritarian states around the world, from Belarus to Russia to Turkey to Egypt and you'll see not only a near-dictator, but also a crowd of yes-men (and women) around him eager to praise every decree and pronuncement, no matter how offensive.

That's why the stands taken by Luisa Ortega, the attorney general of increasingly authoritarian Venezuela, are so impressive.

Generally, in authoritarian regimes, those surrounding the leader support him because the leader rewards loyal allies, while those who oppose him get fired or worse.

But Ortega has defied that calculation.

Ortega called the decision by the Supreme Court - packed with government loyalists - to dissolve the

Wannabe dictator Nicolas Maduro.

oppposition-controlled parliament and assume its powers "a violation of the constitutional order." That's a bit of an understatement, but good for her, anyway. In the face of her opinion and international criticism, the court reversed itself, although it continues to annul the parliament's laws one by one.

Ortega has also declined to prosecute anti-government protesters, causing the government to send them to military courts, an evident violation of the Constitution.

Organization of American States Secretary General Luis Almagro pointed out that trying civilians in military courts was done by Latin America's right-wing dictators.

She has also accused the Maduro government of lawbreaking and even of killing at least one protester.

Ortega is no right-wing anti-government fanatic, but leftie loyalist to the deceased Pres. Hugo Chávez.

And Ortega called Pres. Nicolas Maduro's plan to convoke a constitutional convention as "unnecessary" and risky, and charged that the delegates chosen to rewrite the Constitution would not be representative of Venezuelans, who overwhelmingly oppose Pres. Maduro.

Others have pointed out that Maduro's constitutional convention idea is a naked power grab.

We can count on at least one thing: under the new Constitution Ortega won't have a government job.

By Mike Ceaser, of Bogotá Bike Tours

Censorship at Rock al Parque?

Venezuelan heavy metaler Paul Gillman, apparently booted from this year's Rock al Parque.

Paul Gillman is one of Venezuela's biggest rock stars of recent decades. But he is also an outspoken Chavista - a supporter of the leftist movement founded by the late Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. And those politics appear to have gotten him kicked out of this year's Rock al Parque music festival.

That political movement has fallen into severe disrepute in recent years, particularly in Colombia, as Venezuela has become more authoritarian, government forces have violated protesters' rights, and the country's economy has tailspun.

But through it all, Gillman, 57, has remained loyal to the Bolivarian Revolution (a bit reminiscent of the True Believers who kept their faith in Stalin's Soviet Union long after its horrific human rights abuses had become common knowledge), calling himself '100% revolutionary.'

Brothers in revolution: Gillman with the late Hugo Chavez.

Concert organizar Idartes' announcement that Gillman would participate spurred protests on Twitter, led by Colombian businessman Julio Correal, one of the festival's founders. 'I'm not the owner of this festival, but if I can cry out against one of (Venezuelan Pres. Nicolas) Maduro's activists, I will always do it,' Correral tweeted.

Call Gillman ignorant, naive, stupid, or whatever - but he's part of a long tradition of artists, such as Pete Seeger and Paul Robeson, whose ideals blinded them to terrible realities. Seeger's and Robeson's musical talents don't get recalibrated because of their faith in the Soviet Union, so why should Gillman's Colombian fans be deprived of his music because he supports a rotten regime like Venezuela's?

Rock al Parque 2017.

The organizers of Rock al Parque, said to be the largest free concert in South America, allege that the festival has always been apolitical - which is a bit difficult to believe. According to the cultural magazine Arcadia, the Venezuelan group Caramelos de Cianuro, which performed at last year's Rock al Parque, is 'clearly aligned with the opposition' to the Venezuelan government. And even if Gillman were to start ranting in favor of la revolucion bonita during his performance, would it make any difference? Not many rock fans are likely to be either persuaded or offended, if they can even make out the words in Gillman's heavy metal lyrics.

Some justified booting Gillman for 'security' reasons. Could Gillman's performance really trigger violence? If that's the real concern, it would mean permitting a small, violent minority to decide what the rest of us can see and hear.

In a letter posted on the Internet, Gillman, who still plans to perform in Colombia at the end of May, called the decision to cancel his performance "unprecedented."

'In Rock al Parque's 23 years...there has never been a similar situation in which an artist with 40 years of experience has been removed for reasons completely removed from music,' he wrote.

He also told the El Tiempo newspaper that Rock al Parque "allowed itself to be carried away by one person's hate."

Paradoxically, as of May 13 Gillman was still listed among the festival's international invitees.

'Without a doubt, (Gillman) is one of the foundational figures of rock (in Venezuela) and across all out continent, and one of the most eagerly awaited in the festival's history.'

His fans will have to wait longer now.

By Mike Ceaser, of Bogotá Bike Tours

Venexit

Venezuelan Pres. Nicolas Maduro has become increasingly dictatorial.

So, you're self-proclaimed socialist 'revolution' is being criticized harshly as undemocratic by the head of an international organization you belong to.

And for good reason: After all, you've invented obstacles to block a recall referendum to which your Constitution gives citizens a right.

And you've used the Supreme Court - which you recently packed with your supporters - to annul every law issued by the opposition-dominated Parliament.

And you've even suspended regional elections, which your government would be sure to lose.

Not satisfied with all of that, you've shut down and banned critical media.

So, it's perfectly understandable, if still unjustifiable, that Venezuelan Pres. Nicolas Maduro intends to withdraw his nation from the Organization of American States (OAS), whose leader has strongly criticized Maduro's trampling of democratic institutions.

Besides his authoritarianism, Maduro has been an
incompetent ruler.

The Venezuelan government's flight from well-founded criticism marks the sad end of one of Latin America's oldest democracies. And Venezuela's descent into authoritarianism and violent repression of government opponents creates many potential problems for Colombia, beginning with the economic and political refugees now flooding across the border.

Authoritarian states are more likely than democracies to enter violent confrontations, and Colombia and Venezuela have a history of tensions, over territory, smuggling, migration and the activities of illegal organizations.

And the situation is worsened by Venezuela's economic tailspin, which could drive Maduro to seek a scapegoat - who could be Colombia.

Unfortunately, Venezuela's pending withdrawal from the OAS will only confirm its path toward dictatorship.

By Mike Ceaser, of Bogotá Bike Tours

Trumping Latin Democracies

Donald Trump, would-be strongman.

U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump and Venezuelan Pres. Nicolas Maduro may
seem like polar opposites. One is a wealthy conservative, the other a leftist who started out as a bus driver.

The two, however, do have at least one characteristic in common: Authoritarianism.

At the last U.S. presidential debate, Trump told Democrat Hillary Clinton that if he were president, she'd "be in jail," because of her mishandling of government e-mails. Evidently, Trump had forgotten that imprisoning people is the job of judges and prosecutors, not of presidents - at least in a democracy.

Nicolas Maduro, Venezuela's
authoritarian president.

But Trump might find a model in Maduro, whose government has imprisoned numerous opponents, most prominently Leopoldo Lopez, an ex-mayor and potential presidential candidate, whose trial was called a farce by many human rights organizations. Lopez is serving a 14 year prison term for supposedly inciting protests using subliminal signals.

Not satisfied with jailing opponents, the deeply unpopular Maduro has also used his puppet Supreme Court to declare Parliament, where the opposition has a majority, 'unconstitutional' and unable to issue legislation. Maduro also announced that he will instruct the Supreme Court to approve the national budget, even tho the Constitution explicits gives this job to Parliament.

Among Maduro's long list of authoritan, anti-constitutional actions is also using his puppet Electoral Council to put obstacle after obstacle in the way of a recall referendum the opposition wants to organize against him - another right provided in Venezuela's Constitution. And Maduro's government recently said that it won't hold governor and regional legislative elections this year because it can't afford to - this in an oil-soaked nation which throws billions of dollars away each year on corruption and giving away gasoline.

"The priority isn't to hold elections," Maduro said. "What is the country's priority? Fulfill the whim of the oligarchy or recover the economy?"

Leopold Lopez,
Maduro's political prisoner.

Under Maduro's incompetent mishandling, Venezuela's economy is sinking, it has the world's highest inflation rate and shortages of basic goods like sugar, flour, toilet paper and medicines. It also has one of the world's highest homicide rates.

What Venezuela needs most are elections, to throw out Maduro and his allies and restore sanity. understandably, Maduro doesn't want to permit votes he knows he'd lose.

Sadly, the story is not so different in nations like Bolivia, Ecuador and Nicaragua, where leftist leaders have entrenched themselves and are trying to become presidents-for-life.

In that sense, Brazil and Guatemala, both embroiled in corruption scandals, should be admired. There, at least, the democratic institutions have had the resiliency to remove flawed presidents and investigate their alleged misdeeds.

Would the U.S.'s own institutions be strong enough to withstand a President Trump?

Hopefully, we'll never have to find out.

Check out the excellent NY Times story about this.

By Mike Ceaser, of Bogotá Bike Tours

Maduro and Trump: Separated at Birth?

Nicolas Maduro.

Whenever the opportunity comes up, expect Venezuelan Pres. Nicolas Maduro to denounce U.S. billionare presidential candidate Donald Trump as a right-wing, xenophobic would-be dictator.

And, if he ever gets the chance, expect Trump to denounce Maduro as a xenophobic, left-wing, bannana republic tyrant.

Both should be careful about what they say, since they seem to be blood brothers, despite supposedly being ideological opposites.

Trump boasts that if elected president of the United States he'll expel all illegal immigrants, whom he blames for the U.S.'s crime troubles, and build a wall along the Mexican border - at Mexico's expense. Those claims are absurd, of course. However, to see an example, he can just look south to the Venezuelan-Colombian border.

Donald Trump.

As Trump does the Mexicans, Maduro blames Colombians for his country's criminal and ecnomic troubles. And, as Trump would do, Maduro has expelled Colombian immigrants and tried to shut down the border.

The result? A humanitarian crisis, accusations of rights violations - and Venezuela's economy continues suffering and its crime epidemic continues.

Trump calls himself a conservative, Maduro calls himself a leftist. But, when it comes to futile, abusive national policies, ideological opposites seem to intersect.

Trump's wet dream? Deported Colombians carry their belongings across a river from Venezuela into Colombia. (Photo: Telemundo)

By Mike Ceaser, of Bogotá Bike Tours

Scapegoating Colombians

Deported Colombians wait with their belongings.
(Reuters)

"They're driving them out of their homes, and stealing their belongings," one of the guys who works with me said angrily, turning away from the TV news.

He had been watching a report about Colombians being driven out of their homes in Venezuelan border regions and deported back to Colombia.

Those Colombians are, according to the Venezuelan government, the cause of Venezuela's problems.

Venezuela has one of the world's highest homicide rates - so high that its government has stopped publishing crime statistics. Its economy is floundering so badly that the economics ministry has quit publishing inflation statistics. Its troubles with shortages and corruption go on and on.

Now, with parliamentary elections just a few months away, the Venezuelan government has decided that the culprits are not Venezuelans, but Colombians (not to mention the evil, imperialistic U.S.)

Venezuela's continuing crisis will likely only get lots worse before things get better. And, Venezuela will badly need the goodwill and assistance of its most important neighbor and important trading partner.

Venezuelan Pres. Maduro may see electoral advantages in scapegoating Colombians, but he's not doing his nation any long-term favors.

Maduro's '21st-Century Socialism', which consists mostly of populist give-aways and economic controls, is based on denial of economic realities. Price controls and a command economy caused shortages and long lines in communist Eastern Europe. Now they're bringing the same results to Venezuela. Why should anybody be surprised?

It is true that, on a small scale, Venezuela's troubles are contributed to by Colombian (and Venezuelan) smugglers, who carry subsidized Venezuelan gasoline and foodstuffs across the border and cocaine the other way.

Guess what happens when something costs pennies on one side of a line and dollars on the other? That product gets shifted from the cheap side to the rich side, no matter what anybody tries to do. It's like water flowing downhill.

Venezuela has always been unsustainably dependent on oil income. But that independence has only increased during the years since Hugo Chavez was elected president, making the recent price plunge extremely devastating. The Venezuelan government has only made the situation worse by making gasoline free, hemorraging many billions of dollars annually with a subsidy which also harms the environment and goes disproportionalely to the wealthy.

Until Venezuela discovers economic reality its troubles will worsen. Sadly, that means that persecution of Colombians may only get worse.

By Mike Ceaser, of Bogotá Bike Tours

A Fight for a Patch of Water

Which is the line? Disputed seawaters between Colombia and Venezuela.
(Image from Wikipedia)

The Golfo de Venezuela separates Colombia from its eastern neighbor in more ways than one.

The gulf, outside the city of Maracaibo, is borderd on its western side by the La Guajira peninsula, and on the other by the Venezuelan mainland. Thru the gulf passes much of Venezuela's oil exports.

But one small patch of the gulf is not Venezuela's - according to Colombia. And that difference has been the source of disagreement since Venezuela separated from La Gran Colombia in 1831. Multiple treaties, negotiations and arbitrations haven't resolved the difference. And in 1987, the two nations even came close to war when a Colombian warship, the Corbeta Caldas, entered the disputed waters. Venezuela sent its own fleet of warships to confront it, and the crisis only ended after the secretary of the OAS and the president of Argentina intervened.

After that, the two countries established a binational commission to work out the dispute, but the commission hasn't met for the last seven years.

The difference centers on whether the maritime border is drawn as an extention of the land border, as Venezuela claims, or more to the eastward, as Colombia asserts. Part of the dispute hinges on the status of the Los Monjes Archipelago, a group of rocks inhabited by birds but not people (except for a Venezuelan military outpost), which are controlled by Venezuela, but have historically been claimed by Colombia. Do Los Monjes qualify as Venezuelan continental territory incluencing the border line?

The current dispute was triggered by another border dispute, between Venezuela and its eastern

Venezuela claims abouit two-thirds
of the territory controlled by Guyana.
(Image from Wikipedia)

neighbor, the small, ex-British colony Guyana. Venezuela claims more than half of the territory governed by Guyana, including Caribbean waters. In May, Guyana issued drilling rights to ExxonMobil in waters claimed by Venezuela. Venezuela responded by declaring Integral Maritime Defense Zones, called Zodimains, on both its eastern and western borders, including waters claimed by Guyana and Colombia. (The western Zodimain does acknowledge that the waters are disputed.)

Guyana, whose very existence as a nation is threatened by Venezuela's claims, responded more aggressively, by canceling landing rights for a Venezuelan state airline, stranding a plane and passengers in the Guyanese capital. Venezuela seemed to back off after that. Colombia, for its part, sent a letter of protest and is still awaiting response.

The dispute has more than symbolic importance. The patch of waters borders the entrance to Maracaibo's port, and may contain oil or gas reserves.

Control of Carribbean maritime territory is a sore point for Colombia, after a ruling in 2012 by the International Court of Justice in The Hague giving Nicaragua sovereignty over large areas of sea around the San Andres archipelago, which belong to Colombia.

Some Colombian commentators suggest that Venezuela's provocative moves are intended to generate nationalism and distract the people from domestic troubles. Venezuela's economy is in free-fall, its crime rate has soared and the government faces parliamentary elections in December.

By Mike Ceaser, of Bogotá Bike Tours

The Spokesman Who Wasn't There

Venezuela's state-run and state-controlled media needed someone high up in the United States to take their side. So, they invented him.

Jim Luers is a White House spokesman, and also an FBI agent. Or, he might be, if he only existed.

Luers achieved public prominence recently when 'White House spokesman Jim Luers' was quoted in pro-government Venezuelan media saying that reports that National Assembly President Diosdado Cabello was under investigation in the U.S. on drug-smuggling allegations were "totally false." That raised eyebrows, since multiple media have reported that Cabello is in fact under investigation for narcotrafficking.

Soon after, skeptical journalists discovered that Luers apparently did not exist. A real White House spokesman denied that any Jim Luers had ever worked there.

Nevertheless, the man who was never there in the flesh, does exist in cyberspace. He had a Twitter account, since suspended, and a satirical Wordpress site, on which he boasts of his 'enormous experience in interamerican relations,' and says he is 'currently in charge of a secret White House project to improve bilateral relations with the sister republic of Bolivarian Venezuela'.

Somebody, clearly, is getting some fun out of this episode.

But the serious, and disturbing side of this episode is how enthusiastically Venezuela's Chavista media, much of which has been intimidated into echoing government declarations or outright purchased by pro-government businessmen, eagerly and unquestioningly swallowed the Jim Luers fantasy.

If that's their standard of journalism, then it's understandable why they swallow and regurgitate absurd Venezuelan government statements so easily.

By Mike Ceaser, of Bogotá Bike Tours

Maduro in his Labyrinth

Venezuelan newspaper editor Teodoro Petkoff expects the
government to carry out elections, even tho they'll likely lose.
(Image: El Tiempo)

Venezuela's media is mostly controlled by the government; In the run-up to every election, the state oil company converts into a Chavista campaign machine; And many Venezuelans suspect that the government knows how they vote.

Nevertheless, Venezuelan voting has been called clean and its results accurate by international observers, enabling the government to boast about its democratic credentials.

Now, however, the government of Pres. Nicolas Maduro, successor to Hugo Chavez, may be nearing democratic breaking point.

Nicolas Maduro; struggling to hold on.

The uncharismatic Maduro's popularity has sunk to about 30%, and his country suffers shortages of milk, toilet paper and medicines. Electricity is being rationed. The rates of inflation and homicide are setting world records, and the economy is shrinking.

Under conditions like these, prospects look dim for the governing socialist party in the parliamentary elections supposed to be held in the second half of this year. Unsurprisingly, 10 of 11 opinion surveys published on Wikipedia show voters favoring the opposition over the governing party, in some with more than double the support.

A loss of power would not only halt the 'Bolivarian Revolution,' but could also put chavista officials at the mercy of opposition legislators eager to call them to account for years of corruption and alleged human rights violations.

What are Maduro and his party in the National Assembly to do to hold onto power?

Observers, particularly on the Caracas Chronicles blog, have made several speculations:

The government might postpone or even suspend elections, justifying the move by accusing the opposition of criminal plans to steal the elections or carry out a coup.

In fact, it appears increasingly as tho they are considering such a delay. After all, in previous elections, the government-controlled National Electoral Council (CNE) set election dates a year or more in advance. The 2010 legislative elections took place in September. September 2015 is now only four months away.

However, one Caracas Chronicles contributor expects the government to hold the elections - and, if it loses, strip the National Assembly of its powers, making Pres. Maduro dictator in all but name.

"I think chavismo will lose the election, after which the National Assembly will be stripped of all its powers and be given a ceremonial role, if any.

"There could be a Constitutional Assembly. There could be some sort of national emergency declared. Any and all acts coming from an opposition-controlled National Assembly will be deemed illegal. They will find a way to disenfranchise us. I’m sure they will think of something."

Such a move, however, would create their clearest break yet with the democratic system.

I rather suspect the government might find a way to redraw voting districts, and gerrymander the system to retain a legislative majority despite an overwhelming loss of the popular vote.

When officials in Washington D.C. criticize Venezuela for this fraud, the response response from Caracas will be simple: 'Look at the U.S,'s own unjust and undemocratic election system, which elected the second George Bush president in the year 2000, despite his losing the popular vote to Al Gore.'

But if such manipulations would also appear too shameless, then perhaps fraud, pay-offs and intimidation would work. The government notoriously instructs government employees to vote for chavista candidates, and in the past they have circulated lists of names of people who voted for the opposition, who were then blacklisted from employment.

Alternatively, following a legislative loss, the government could accuse the opposition of fraud, fascism or being golpistas and ignore the results. 

It's sad to assume someone's guilt before the act's happened. However, the chavista government's discourse and behavior - and I lived in Caracas for almost three years of Chavez - make it hard to believe release their grip on power voluntarily.

Let's hope I'm wrong, since Latin America doesn't need another generation of dictators.

By Mike Ceaser, of Bogotá Bike Tours

A Venezuelan Threat to Whom?

Nicolas Maduro: Hapless leader
or threat to Washington?

“I, BARACK OBAMA, President of the United States of America, find that the situation in Venezuela....constitutes an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security and foreign policy of the United States, and I hereby declare a national emergency to deal with that threat." 

Give us a break. Venezuela is near being a failed state. It's economy's going down the tubes, its government's turning increasingly corrupt, authoritarian and repressive, and Venezuelans' lives are becoming tougher and tougher.

Venezuela is a threat...to Venezuelans and probably to Colombians and other neighbors. But an 'extraordinary threat' to the U.S.'s national security and foreign policy?

Venezuela was perhaps once a threat to U.S. foreign policy - back when Chavez was alive and admired, and when high oil prices gave Caracas a full wallet to buy and influence foreign heads of state. But today Venezuela is widely seen as the basket case it is and has been reduced to begging support from its few allies. Caracas is in no position to rally anybody against the U.S. Even Venezuela's long-time ally Cuba has pivoted toward Washington.

Venezuela's worst-case - and increasingly likely - scenario is a larger scale repeat of its its 1989 Caracazo social explosion, when riots led to thousands of deaths. The difference is that today the economy is even more distorted and the country even harder up than back then, so things might be even worse, and Venezuela could emerge from the crisis as a full-fledged dictatorship.

But that dictatorship scenario is a threat to Venezuelans rather than to the U.S. As many will recall, Washington got along just fine with dictators and strongmen in Brazil, Argentina, Chile and Peru - not to mention China and Washington's blooming friendship with communist Cuba. Or maybe I missed Washington's crack-down on Saudi Arabia for being a dictatorship, not permitting free speech or religious practice, and furiously repressing women, dissidents and religious minorities.

And, the Washington officials who denounce Venezuela should keep in mind that they are financing the behavior of Caracas, which still sells most of its oil to the U.S.

The Caracas Chronicles blog speculates that Venezuela could emerge as a base for Islamic terrorism - which is an absurd, wild-eyed scenario for a highly-Catholic nation still dependent on U.S. Or turn into a narco-state. But the U.S. has long co-existed with state-tolerated drug trafficking, and will continue losing the War on Drugs until it abandons failed prohibitionist policies.

On the other hand, Obama's declaration plays right into Venezuelan Pres. Nicolas Maduro's rantings about the U.S. conspiring to invade and overthrow him. After all, declaring a nation an 'extraordinary threat' sounds like a great justification for invasion.

Venezuelan Pres. Maduro didn't hesitate to exploit the new diplomatic crisis, which he called "the most aggressive, unjust and harmful blow against Venezuela." Maduro announced that he would introduce an enabling law into the National Assembly giving himself additional powers to deal with the situation. Those familiar with Venezuelan politics tknow that means more quasi-dictatorial powers for Maduro.

Disturbingly, Venezuela's Ambassador to the Organization of American States said during a television interview that a sharpshooter's bullet makes a different noise when passing thru the skull of a government opponent, because "the sound is much less, like a crack, because the cranium is hollow and the bullet passes thru rapidly."

A comforting comment for opponents in a supposedly democratic nation.

By Mike Ceaser, of Bogotá Bike Tours