More on Mockus

I looked over the 'Green party's' 'green' agenda. There's a single bullet point, out of 15, and a vague one at that. Which is a lot less than George W. Bush and Exxon promise for the planet.

So, give them credit for not making wild promises. But let's be clear that the green in the party is a color only.

The guy at Caracas Chronicles suggests that the recent polls which place Mockus substantially ahead undercount the rural population. That might be true, since these folks are much less likely to have telephones. And it's also true that rural folks are less likely to be impressed by a guy who dropped his pants in front of his class and dressed up as Superman - or even to have heard of Mockus. Rural people are also more likely to be grateful to Santos for driving the guerrillas away from their lands.

All in all, the election is still up for grabs.

Who's better for the country is another issue entirely. Santos has accomplished a lot as defense minister by freeing great sections of the country from the persecution by the guerrillas. But the guerrillas have not gone away, in part because they've got huge incomes from drugs and extortion, combined with the fact that Colombia's poverty rate is still a terribly high 43 percent overall and 61 percent in the countryside. And 23 percent of Colombians are indigent. That makes becoming a guerrilla (or a paramilitary or a plain-old narco) a tremendous temptation for a poor kid. (I've spoken to enough ex-guerrillas and ex-kidnappees to know that they don't sign up because they read Das Kapital and decided to overthrow capitalism.) Presumably, Mockus would invest more in social causes, and this could mean fewer kids joining the guerrillas out of desperation.

Or, maybe Santos would hike investments in education, health and other social causes. After all, Nixon got us out of Vietnam and into China.

Speaking of the guerrillas, the other day the FARC issued a statement denouncing the government for human rights violations. And there are many government scandals, the most notorious being the 'false positives' - cases in which poor young men have been kidnapped, murdered and dressed up as guerrillas, apparently by military units trying to get credit for extra kills. It's a terrible, horrific thing, and a real stain on the nation and on presidential candidate Santos, under whose watch these killings took place. But the guerrillas are way behind the curve on this one - Colombia's legal system has been investigating these rights violations for years, and military officials are in prison for it. More than that, the guerrillas have no moral standing for making such denouncements, since murdering civilians is what they do. And no guerrilla court holds them accountable for their innumerable crimes.

This blog written by Mike Ceaser of Bogotá Bike Tours

The Mockus Phenomenon

So, I'm blogging again, for anybody who cares...

It's the presidential campaign which moved me back to the keyboard. Suddenly, what was supposed to be a routine, predictable campaign, in which popular Pres. Alvaro Uribe, after failing in his effort to run again himself, handed power over to his man, Defense Minister Juan Manuel Santos, has gone bonkers. An eccentric ex-mayor of Bogotá, a man of Lithuanian parentage who once interrupted a class he was teaching to drop his pants, who recently announced that he has Parkinson's and that he's an atheist, is in a dead heat with Santos, in some polls.

Antanas Mockus' campaign is like a breath of fresh air in a nation which has spent decades obsessed with the grimness of an armed conflict, narcotrafficking and bombings. For once, will Colombians choose their president based on issues like poverty and education, rather than violence? Or, should they?

Mockus is widely agreed to be honest, intelligent and innovative. His public acknowledgement of his Parkinson's was also courageous in a nation which usually seeks strong leaders.

But Mockus is the Green Party candidate. Green is great. I'm an environmentalist. But, sadly, environmentalism may not be Colombia's first priority as a weakened by still vicious guerrilla still claws at its society. And, for that matter, what about Mockus' platform is really green? He didn't even show up for the one debate held on environmental issues and then issued a vacous statement.

I dunno. Mockus is a good guy...but his agenda's still a big mystery. And, while Colombia's come a long way in terms of security and quality of life, perhaps it still needs to make concentrating on the guerrillas and other outlaw groups its top priority. And, clearly, Santos, the man who bombed Raul Reyes' camp in Ecuador, would do that.

There's also a green factor which is missing here. The drug erradication campaign may be futile or worthwhile, but it clearly is disastrous for the environment. Because drugs are illegal, jungle is cleared to plant drug crops, herbicides are sprayed on that jungle and people's homes, and untold quantities of used chemicals are poured into streams. If drugs were legalized, they'd be cultivated and produced like wine grapes and tobacco - with some modicum of environmental controls.

For greens, at least, drug legalization/depenalization is a no-brainer. But I haven't heard of Mockus, or any other candidate, taking a stand on this issue which is so fundamental to Colombia. I'll keep waiting.

This blog blogged by Mike Ceaser, owner of Bogotá Bike Tours and Rentals