Three Reasons Why Pico y Placa is Doomed

Petro's recent adjustment of Bogotá's pico y placa rule makes the scheme a bit more predictable - and reduces traffic jams by increasing from two to three the number of days each car is banned from the streets.

That's a recognition of the reality that the number of private cars in Bogotá is going up, up and up. And it will increase even faster, inevitably overwhelming the pico y placa rule. In fact, by stimulating the buying of second cars to drive on those off days, pico y placa perversely drives more car-buying, accelerating the city's gridlock. (The rule works by restricting driving according to the last digit of a car's license plate.)  

A Chevy dealer's ad invites owners of cars
with similar-ending license plates to visit. 

And anybody who thinks this trend will end is fantasizing for at least three reasons:

1 - Economic growth: Colombia's economy is growing steadily, and desire for status, convenience and more status is driving car purchases with this new wealth. Close to 100,000 additional cars enter Bogotá every year, pushing the city closer to permanent gridlock.

2 - Free Trade Agreements - Each additional free trade agreement - with the U.S., Korea, Europe and even China - opens the gates to more cheap cars, accelerating car purchases.

3 - China - Even without a likely FTA with China, Chinese-made cars are way cheaper than those from Europe, the USA, Japan or even Korea. The New York Times reports that a Chinese-made model sells for one third of the price of a similarly-equipped Japanese car. (More unfortunately, those Chinese cars are cheap because they seem to lack all pollution controls.)

How will Bogotá survive this onslaught of cars? Will it progressively adjust the pico y placa to prohibit cars from driving four days of each week, then five, then six? That, or building huge urban freeways which the city cannot afford, will be the only alternative to traffic strangulation - unless Bogotá thinks outside the box.

Petro says the new Pico y Placa scheme will last only one year. And after that? The only sustainable solution is managing demand for street space with a congestion charge, like those in London, Singapore and Stockholm. 


By Mike Ceaser, of Bogotá Bike Tours

Miss that Bad Ol' Pico y Placa Yet?

Drivers wait and wait on a street in La Candelaria. 

As they do every year, Bogotá authorities suspended the Pico y Placa rule during the holidays, when many thousands of Bogotanos leave the city. 

Which means that, even with a much-reduced population, we still suffer almost the same old traffic jams. I took these photos today in the city center.

This situation gives reason to reflect on incoming Mayor Gustavo Petro's plan to eliminate the Pico y Placa rule for good. Pico y Placa has obviously failed, as the huge traffic jams on a normal day in Bogotá attest. But the city needs an effective alternative, such as a London-style congestion charge. 

Otherwise, with thousands of additional cars flooding the city every week, Bogotá will suffocate in its own traffic.

By Mike Ceaser, of Bogotá Bike Tours

Fiddling While Bogotá Waits

Waiting for a solution

Bogotá has, for many years, had a policy called Pico y Placa which prohibits vehicles from driving in the city two days of each week, according to the last digit on the license plate.

The system successfully reduced traffic congestion -  in the short term. In the longer term, however, the policy is counterproductive, because it encourages the purchase of second cars with different license plate numbers by those who can afford to. A glance at the city's tremendous traffic jams shows patently that Pico y Placa has failed.

This week is particularly dramatic, because the city government suspended Pico y Placa during the holidays, when many people leave the city. However, while the city started back up on the 11th, the suspension extends until the 15th, condemning us to a week of really infernal traffic jams.

Last year, the city government expanded the restriction to 14 hours per day because of the traffic problems generated by roadwork. That change is scheduled to expire Feb. 15 - when the road projects were supposed to  be wrapped up. However, those projects are way behind, and so city hall is talking about extending the 14-hour  Pico y Placa - an inevitable decision. More broadly, officials may add Saturdays to the Pico y Placa rotation, banning cars from the streets three out of every six days.

Bogotá needs more bikes, fewer cars.

But does anybody realy believe that will make more than an incremental reduction in traffic congestion? Particularly when 140,000 cars and 40,000 motorcycles were registered in Bogotá last year?

What Bogotá needs is a congestion charge, the only solution which will take cars off of the road, while also generating income for public transit.



By Mike Ceaser, of Bogotá Bike Tours